Game on!…

Valley fog and the Rio Grande Pyramid under cloudy skies – pic taken 9/21/2022

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Wednesday – 21 Sep 2022 – 10:30am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 79 and the low this morning was 54. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 24%. Winds at the airfield hit 28mph yesterday.

Precip summary… We’re off to slow start but I’m glad much of the county got some rain. The rain lottery winners were Val in Lost Valley and Jim in Aspen Springs 2.

*24-hour CoCoRaHS rainfall reports range from 0.06” to 0.17”*

Forecast discussion…

Tropical moisture is here!

A BIG thanks to the Springs Resort for sponsoring the soaking from Madeline's remains! — A BIG thanks to the Springs Resort for sponsoring the soaking from Madeline’s remains!

*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a FLOOD WATCH valid to Thursday evening. Excessive rainfall and runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, low-lying areas, and other flood-prone locations. ***

We are under the heart of the tropical moisture plume, and it will stick with us into tomorrow evening.

Precip expectations… Showers will come in waves fluctuating between periods of heavy rain and nothing. The best chance for heavy rain is Wednesday afternoon to Thursday afternoon. By Thursday evening, showers will become more scattered and taper off after midnight. I expect 1.5” to 2” of rain in the Pagosa Springs area.

Friday through Sunday ridging will build over the region. Upper level winds will gradually turn from westerly on Friday to northwest and then north through the weekend. Dry air advection will lead to lots of sun and seasonal temps.

Water vapor satellite this morning: We are under the heart of the tropical moisture plume being pushed into the region from the southwest. The moisture plume will stick us into tomorrow evening when the low currently over northern CA moves northeast towards western MT, and flattens the ridge which will turn our upper level winds westerly and dry things out

*Radar this morning: The heavier showers are to our south and southwest and are moving towards the northeast. Showers will increase in our area this afternoon.*

My forecast…

Wednesday & Thursday: Rain, occasionally heavy with localized flooding and then tapering off during Thursday evening. Friday: A few lingering showers, mostly over the mountains, and clouds clearing. Friday and Saturday nights: The cold spots could dip below freezing. Patchy morning fog is possible in low-lying areas. * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning. — ***Wednesday & Thursday: Rain, occasionally heavy with localized flooding and then tapering off during Thursday evening.***
***Friday: A few lingering showers, mostly over the mountains, and clouds clearing.***
***Friday and Saturday nights: The cold spots could dip below freezing. Patchy morning fog is possible in low-lying areas.***
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

The NWS 72-hour forecast precip expects Pagosa Springs to get 2.1” of rain. The heaviest rain will fall Wednesday afternoon to Thursday afternoon. Note that much of southwest CO is expected to get 2” of rain and the bullseyes over the mountains are in the 3-4” range. That’s a lot of rain in a short period!

NBM forecast radar loop from 10am this morning to 6pm tomorrow – Showers will increase this afternoon and then falls heavy at times overnight and tomorrow. Showers will taper off by midnight tomorrow.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
71	85 / 1966	34	19 / 1978

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

My next update will be tomorrow morning.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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