Valley fog and the Rio Grande Pyramid under cloudy skies – pic taken 9/21/2022
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Wednesday – 21 Sep 2022 – 10:30am
The past…
At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 79 and the low this morning was 54. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 24%. Winds at the airfield hit 28mph yesterday.
Precip summary… We’re off to slow start but I’m glad much of the county got some rain. The rain lottery winners were Val in Lost Valley and Jim in Aspen Springs 2.

Forecast discussion…
Tropical moisture is here!

*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a FLOOD WATCH valid to Thursday evening. Excessive rainfall and runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, low-lying areas, and other flood-prone locations. ***

We are under the heart of the tropical moisture plume, and it will stick with us into tomorrow evening.
Precip expectations… Showers will come in waves fluctuating between periods of heavy rain and nothing. The best chance for heavy rain is Wednesday afternoon to Thursday afternoon. By Thursday evening, showers will become more scattered and taper off after midnight. I expect 1.5” to 2” of rain in the Pagosa Springs area.
Friday through Sunday ridging will build over the region. Upper level winds will gradually turn from westerly on Friday to northwest and then north through the weekend. Dry air advection will lead to lots of sun and seasonal temps.


My forecast…

Friday: A few lingering showers, mostly over the mountains, and clouds clearing.
Friday and Saturday nights: The cold spots could dip below freezing. Patchy morning fog is possible in low-lying areas.
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.


Pagosa Springs historical data
Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
71 | 85 / 1966 | 34 | 19 / 1978 |
Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.
My next update will be tomorrow morning.
– Shawn