The WPC excessive rainfall outlook valid Wednesday morning to Thursday morning indicates a “moderate” or at least 40% chance for rainfall to exceed flash-flood guidance.
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Tuesday – 20 Sep 2022 – 6:00pm
At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 78 and the low this morning was 44. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 19%. Winds at the airfield hit 20mph yesterday.
Precip summary… The first few spotty showers moved over parts of the county starting around 3pm this afternoon and I heard the first crack of thunder at 4:30pm. So far it hasn’t amounted to much. Stayed tuned for tomorrow’s CoCoRaHS reports.
Tropical moisture is headed our way!
*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a FLOOD WATCH valid to Thursday evening. Excessive rainfall and runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, low-lying areas, and other flood-prone locations. ***
Four ingredients are coming together for a significant rain event:
1. A low will spin off the northern CA coast through Wednesday morning and then it will move northeast across central OR and then the ID panhandle.
2. A high will wobble around the TX/OK region during the same time.
3. Upper level southerly and southwesterly flow between the low and the high will persist until Friday morning.
4. Tropical storm Madeline is no longer a named storm, but her moisture will funnel into our area into Thursday evening.
Precip expectations… Showers will come in waves fluctuating between periods of heavy rain and nothing. The best chance for heavy rain is Wednesday afternoon to Thursday afternoon. By Thursday evening, showers will become more scattered and taper off after midnight. I expect 1.75” to 2.25” of rain in the Pagosa Springs area.
Pagosa Springs historical data
|Average High||Record High / Year||Average Low||Record Low / Year|
|72||83 / 1984||35||18 / 1971|
Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.
My next update will be tomorrow morning.