A FLOOD WATCH has been issued…

One of our favorite views.  Keep an eye out for the ark Wednesday and Thursday! - Pic taken 9/19/2022

One of our favorite views.  Keep an eye out for the ark Wednesday and Thursday! – Pic taken 9/19/2022

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Monday – 19 Sep 2022 – 5:40pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 76 and the low this morning was 48. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 20%. Winds at the airfield hit 24mph yesterday.

Precip summary… A few surprise showers moved through overnight.  The rain lottery winners were Steve near Vista Lake and Suanne near Village Lake.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports range from zero to 0.03”
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports range from zero to 0.03”

Forecast discussion…

Tropical storm Madeline will send moisture our way!
A BIG thanks to the Springs Resort for sponsoring the soaking from Madeline's remains!
A BIG thanks to the Springs Resort for sponsoring the soaking from Madeline’s remains!

*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a FLOOD WATCH for Tuesday afternoon to Thursday evening. Excessive rainfall and runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, low-lying areas, and other flood-prone locations. ***

The WPC excessive rainfall outlook valid Wednesday morning to Thursday morning indicates a “moderate” or at least 40% chance for rainfall to exceed flash-flood guidance.
The WPC excessive rainfall outlook valid Wednesday morning to Thursday morning indicates a “moderate” or at least 40% chance for rainfall to exceed flash-flood guidance.

Four ingredients are coming together for a significant rain event:

1. A low will spin off the northern CA coast through Wednesday morning and then it will move northeast across central OR and then the ID panhandle. 

2. A high will wobble around the TX/OK region during the same time.

3. Upper level southerly and southwesterly flow between the low and the high will persist until Friday morning.

4. Tropical storm Madeline will have a short life, but her moisture will funnel into our area Tuesday evening into early Friday morning.

Precip expectations… The forecast models are coming into agreement with around 2.0” in our area.  As of 5pm Monday afternoon, I expect 1.75” to 2.25” of rain in the Pagosa Springs area.

GeoColor satellite this afternoon: The red arrows indicate upper level flow around the low and the high. The green arrows indicate the track for Madeline’s moisture. A few more cumulus clouds have developed across the region, but the subtropical moisture is still well to our south.
GeoColor satellite this afternoon: The red arrows indicate upper level flow around the low and the high.  The green arrows indicate the track for Madeline’s moisture. A few more cumulus clouds have developed across the region, but the subtropical moisture is still well to our south.
Radar this afternoon: There are a few scattered showers across the Four Corners region. Some are moving towards the north and others are moving towards the northeast. It has been quiet this afternoon across Archuleta County.
Radar this afternoon: There are a few scattered showers across the Four Corners region.  Some are moving towards the north and others are moving towards the northeast. It has been quiet this afternoon across Archuleta County.

My forecast…

Tuesday: Scattered afternoon showers, especially over the mountains, becoming widespread through the evening. Wednesday & Thursday: Rain, occasionally heavy with localized flooding. Friday: Showers tapering off in the morning and clouds clearing during the afternoon. The cold spots could dip below freezing Friday night. * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
Tuesday: Scattered afternoon showers, especially over the mountains, becoming widespread through the evening.
Wednesday & Thursday: Rain, occasionally heavy with localized flooding.
Friday: Showers tapering off in the morning and clouds clearing during the afternoon. The cold spots could dip below freezing Friday night.
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
The NWS 78-hour forecast precip expects Pagosa Springs to get 2.1” of rain. Most of this will fall between late Tuesday evening to Thursday evening. Note that much of southwest CO is expected to get 2” of rain.
The NWS 78-hour forecast precip expects Pagosa Springs to get 2.1” of rain.  Most of this will fall between late Tuesday evening to Thursday evening. Note that much of southwest CO is expected to get 2” of rain.
NBM forecast precip from Tuesday at noon to Friday at 6pm – It starts slowly with spotty showers Tuesday afternoon. Precip becomes more widespread and heavier starting Tuesday evening and tapers off early Friday morning. The total is 2.60”. That’s 130% of our September average precip in just 60 hours. I think this model is overdoing it a bit, but the timing looks good.
NBM forecast precip from Tuesday at noon to Friday at 6pm – It starts slowly with spotty showers Tuesday afternoon.  Precip becomes more widespread and heavier starting Tuesday evening and tapers off early Friday morning.  The total is 2.60”. That’s 130% of our September average precip in just 60 hours. I think this model is overdoing it a bit, but the timing looks good.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7387 / 1956359 / 1993

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

My next update will be Tuesday afternoon.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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