Color Fest in Pagosa Springs! – Pic taken 9/18/2022 by Kathleen Lutz McFadden
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Sunday – 18 Sep 2022 – 4:00pm
The past…
At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 74 and the low this morning was 42. The lowest temps were 29 along the upper Piedra and 31 in The Reserve. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 14%. Winds at the airfield hit 23mph yesterday.
Precip summary… Nobody reported precip in our area in the last 24 hours.
Forecast discussion…
Tropical storm Madeline will send moisture our way!
Four ingredients are coming together for a significant rain event:
1. A low will spin off the northern CA coast through Wednesday morning and then it will move northeast across central OR and then the ID panhandle.
2. A high will wobble around the TX/OK region during the same time.
3. Upper level southerly and southwesterly flow between the low and the high will persist until Friday morning.
4. Tropical storm Madeline will have a short life, but her moisture will funnel into our area Tuesday afternoon into Friday morning.
Precipitable water, the amount of water potentially available for precip, is typically around 0.50” for us this time of year. It will start increasing Monday night and from Tuesday evening to Friday morning it’s over 0.90” with a peak around 1.20” Wednesday afternoon – that’s over 200% of average!
Precip expectations… The forecast models are fluctuating between roughly 1.5” and 3.0”. That is a big variance, but even the low end of that range would be significant rainfall. As of 3pm Sunday afternoon, I expect 1.5” to 2” of rain in the Pagosa Springs area.
As always, as the system gets closer and the data gets better, I’ll adjust precip amounts and timing.
My forecast…
Tuesday: Scattered afternoon showers, especially over the mountains, becoming widespread in the evening.
Wednesday & Thursday: Rain, occasionally heavy with localized flooding.
Friday: Showers tapering off in the morning and clouds clearing during the afternoon.
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
It starts slowly with spotty showers Monday afternoon. Precip becomes more widespread and heavier starting Tuesday evening and tapers off Friday morning. The total is 2.65”. That’s 130% of our September average precip in just 60 hours. Right now I think this model is overdoing it a bit, but the timing looks good.
Pagosa Springs historical data
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 73 | 86 / 1956 | 36 | 9 / 1993 |
Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.
My next update will be Monday afternoon. – Shawn
