Lots of rain Tuesday afternoon to Friday morning…

Color Fest in Pagosa Springs! - Pic taken 9/18/2022 by Kathleen Lutz McFadden

Color Fest in Pagosa Springs! – Pic taken 9/18/2022 by Kathleen Lutz McFadden

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Sunday – 18 Sep 2022 – 4:00pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 74 and the low this morning was 42. The lowest temps were 29 along the upper Piedra and 31 in The Reserve. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 14%. Winds at the airfield hit 23mph yesterday.

Temps on Weather Underground this morning around 6:30am were mostly in the mid-30s to low 40s but a couple of spots experienced temps below freezing. (Sorry for cutting out the southern part of the county.  The more the map is zoomed out, the less data it displays – ugh!)
Temps on Weather Underground this morning around 6:30am were mostly in the mid-30s to low 40s but a couple of spots experienced temps below freezing. (Sorry for cutting out the southern part of the county.  The more the map is zoomed out, the less data it displays – ugh!)

Precip summary… Nobody reported precip in our area in the last 24 hours.

Forecast discussion…

Tropical storm Madeline will send moisture our way!
A HUGE thanks to the Springs Resort for sponsoring this big rain event!
A HUGE thanks to the Springs Resort for sponsoring this big rain event!

Four ingredients are coming together for a significant rain event:

1. A low will spin off the northern CA coast through Wednesday morning and then it will move northeast across central OR and then the ID panhandle. 

2. A high will wobble around the TX/OK region during the same time.

3. Upper level southerly and southwesterly flow between the low and the high will persist until Friday morning.

4. Tropical storm Madeline will have a short life, but her moisture will funnel into our area Tuesday afternoon into Friday morning.

Precipitable water, the amount of water potentially available for precip, is typically around 0.50” for us this time of year. It will start increasing Monday night and from Tuesday evening to Friday morning it’s over 0.90” with a peak around 1.20” Wednesday afternoon – that’s over 200% of average!

Precip expectations… The forecast models are fluctuating between roughly 1.5” and 3.0”.  That is a big variance, but even the low end of that range would be significant rainfall. As of 3pm Sunday afternoon, I expect 1.5” to 2” of rain in the Pagosa Springs area.

As always, as the system gets closer and the data gets better, I’ll adjust precip amounts and timing.

GeoColor satellite this afternoon: The red arrows indicate upper level flow around the low and the high.  The green arrows indicate the track for Madeline’s moisture. It’s currently dry in our area.  The leading edge of subtropical moisture is pushing north across western NM.
GeoColor satellite this afternoon: The red arrows indicate upper level flow around the low and the high.  The green arrows indicate the track for Madeline’s moisture. It’s currently dry in our area.  The leading edge of subtropical moisture is pushing north across western NM.
Radar this afternoon: The low off the northern CA coast is kicking up showers in that area. A few spotty showers have developed over southwest NM and are moving north. There’s nothing going on in our area.
Radar this afternoon: The low off the northern CA coast is kicking up showers in that area. A few spotty showers have developed over southwest NM and are moving north. There’s nothing going on in our area.

My forecast…

Monday: Spotty afternoon showers mostly over the mountains. Tuesday: Scattered afternoon showers, especially over the mountains, becoming widespread in the evening. Wednesday & Thursday: Rain, occasionally heavy with localized flooding. Friday: Showers tapering off in the morning and clouds clearing during the afternoon. * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
Monday: Spotty afternoon showers mostly over the mountains.
Tuesday: Scattered afternoon showers, especially over the mountains, becoming widespread in the evening.
Wednesday & Thursday: Rain, occasionally heavy with localized flooding.
Friday: Showers tapering off in the morning and clouds clearing during the afternoon.

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
NBM forecast precip from Monday at noon to Friday at 6pm – It starts slowly with spotty showers Monday afternoon.  Precip becomes more widespread and heavier starting Tuesday evening and tapers off Friday morning.  The total is 2.65”. That’s 130% of our September average precip in just 60 hours. Right now I think this model is overdoing it a bit, but the timing looks good.
NBM forecast precip from Monday at noon to Friday at 6pm –
It starts slowly with spotty showers Monday afternoon.  Precip becomes more widespread and heavier starting Tuesday evening and tapers off Friday morning.  The total is 2.65”. That’s 130% of our September average precip in just 60 hours. Right now I think this model is overdoing it a bit, but the timing looks good.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7386 / 1956369 / 1993

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

My next update will be Monday afternoon. – Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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