Significant rain event next week…

Other than the winds, it was a nice in the high country yesterday - Pic taken 9/16/2022

Other than the winds, it was nice in the high country yesterday – Pic taken 9/16/2022

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Saturday – 17 Sep 2022 – 11:40am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 72 and the low this morning was 41. The lowest temps I saw were 33 and 34 degrees. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 22%. Winds at the airfield hit 25mph yesterday.

Precip summary… Nobody reported precip in our area in the last 24 hours.

Forecast discussion…

Through the weekend we’re stuck between a developing trough along the West Coast and the sub-tropical high over the southern plains. Drier air will continue to move into our area and give us lots of sun.  Unfortunately upper level flow stays strong out of the southwest resulting in afternoon winds up to 30mph.

The pattern gets interesting starting Tuesday.

A HUGE thanks to the Springs Resort for sponsoring this big rain event!
A HUGE thanks to the Springs Resort for sponsoring this big rain event!

The low currently off the Pacific Northwest Coast is expected to spin along the CA coast Sunday through Wednesday or Thursday.  The high currently over TX will wobble around the TX/OK region during the same time. Southwest flow between the low and the high will help funnel tropical moisture into our region Tuesday afternoon into Friday.

Though the models continue to fluctuate on timing and precip amounts, forecast confidence is increasing for a significant rain event.

Water vapor satellite this morning: Drier air has pushed into our area from the southwest. Southwest flow between the high over TX and the low off the West Coast will help funnel tropical moisture into our area Tuesday through Thursday.
Water vapor satellite this morning: Drier air has pushed into our area from the southwest. Southwest flow between the high over TX and the low off the West Coast will help funnel tropical moisture into our area Tuesday through Thursday.

Radar this morning doesn’t show anything significant in our area.

My forecast…

*** The cold spots could dip below freezing tonight. *** * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
*** The cold spots could dip below freezing tonight. ***
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
NWS 72-hour precip to Tuesday morning shows 0.14” in town and up to 0.25” in the area.
NWS 72-hour precip to Tuesday morning shows 0.14” in town and up to 0.25” in the area.
Forecast model precip to Friday at 6pm – The NBM, top center, expects 1.71”, the Euro, bottom left, expects 1.87”, and the GFS, bottom right, shows 1.91”. The models continue to fluctuate with timing and precip amounts, but forecast confidence is increasing for a significant rain event.
Forecast model precip to Friday at 6pm – The NBM, top center, expects 1.71”, the Euro, bottom left, expects 1.87”, and the GFS, bottom right, shows 1.91”.

The models continue to fluctuate with timing and precip amounts, but forecast confidence is increasing for a significant rain event.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7487 / 19563620 / 1968

Rob and Rick from Warriors Mountain River Adventures are currently hosting another group of veterans here in Pagosa Springs.

Warrior Mountain River Adventures (WMRA) is a Veterans non-profit and 501(c)(3) charity which seeks to empower and bring veterans together for community and healing. The number one thing veterans miss about being in the military is the camaraderie. Our mission is focused on being together and experiencing outdoor adventures whereby we introduce and teach new skills that veterans can take home and incorporate into their daily lives. However, most importantly we aim to disrupt 22 veterans a day committing suicide. WMRA believes when you bring veterans together and venture into the great outdoors healing begins. The two greatest injuries from America’s twenty year plus war on terror is Traumatic Brain Injury and Post Traumatic Stress Disorder. Most combat veterans have experienced some type of trauma. The healing of trauma, TBI and PTSD is a lifelong endeavor. Healing isn’t limited to outdoor adventures but rather it’s a wholistic experience including cooking meals together and then enjoying those meals around a dining room table or on the side of a mountain telling and listening to each other stories and jokes.”

Please contact Rob and Rick to learn more and volunteer to help.

https://www.mywmra.org/contact

https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100077423146860

Treasure Falls yesterday – pic taken 9/16/2022
Treasure Falls yesterday – pic taken 9/16/2022

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

My next update will be Sunday afternoon.

– Shawn

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

Shawn Pro

Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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