Great weather all weekend!…

Geese flying by at sunset – pic taken 9/22/2022

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Friday – 23 Sep 2022 – 9:00am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 63 and the low this morning was 49. The cold spot was the upper Piedra at 39. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 76%. Winds at the airfield hit 22mph yesterday.

Precip summary… It rained pretty good yesterday through much of the morning. The afternoon showers and thunderstorms stayed to our south. The rain lottery winner for the last 24 hours was Linda in downtown Pagosa Springs! The rain lottery winner for the 3-day storm total was Val in Lost Valley.

Thanks to everyone for your reports!

*24-hour CoCoRaHS rainfall reports range from 0.30” to 0.75”.*

*3-day precip totals ranged from 1.15” to 1.89”. Though I expected more, the whole county got a good soaking!*

*San Juan River flow is on the top and Piedra is on the bottom – Both streams saw substantial increases and peaked yesterday evening.*

A BIG thanks to the Springs Resort for sponsoring this soaking!

Forecast discussion…

Today through Sunday ridging will build over the region. Upper level winds will gradually turn from westerly on Friday to northwest and then north through the weekend. Dry air advection will lead to lots of sun and seasonal temps.

Starting Monday and lasting through the week, a pseudo-monsoon pattern will try to set up. Ridging will remain over the region and subtropical moisture will nose in from the south and southwest. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be few and far between on Monday and Tuesday and then increase a bit as the week progresses. I’m not expecting much – we’ll be playing the rain lottery.

GeoColor satellite at 6am this morning: The patches of blue indicate low stratus clouds or fog. There is quite a bit over Archuleta County. Otherwise skies are mostly clear, and cities and towns are easily visible. See Farmington? How about Grand Junction?

Radar doesn’t have anything in our area this morning.

My forecast…

Tonight: Patchy fog is possible in the low-lying areas. Friday, Saturday, and Sunday nights: The cold spots could dip below freezing. * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning. — ***Tonight: Patchy fog is possible in the low-lying areas.***
***Friday, Saturday, and Sunday nights: The cold spots could dip below freezing.***
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

*The NWS 72-hour forecast precip just expects a few raindrops over the eastern part of the county. Any precip that falls will be very spotty.*

Euro ensemble precip through next Sunday at midnight expects 0.47” for Pagosa Springs. The GFS ensemble is a little more wet with 0.65”. It’s all convective afternoon showers and thunderstorms so it will be spotty.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
71	83 / 1966	33	20 / 1909

I’ll do the next update on Sunday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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