Scattered showers today – sunny & breezy this weekend…

It’s a good morning to enjoy a hot beverage! - Pic taken 9/14/2022

It’s a good morning to enjoy a hot beverage! – Pic taken 9/14/2022

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Wednesday – 14 Sep 2022 – 9:40am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 73 and the low this morning was 51. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 31%. Winds at the airfield hit 25mph yesterday.

Precip summary… The rain held off until the late evening and then much of the county got some decent rain. The rain lottery winner this morning was Jim in Aspens Springs 2.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall reports from today range from 0.02” to 0.28”.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall reports from today range from 0.02” to 0.28”.

Forecast discussion…

Today the remnants of tropical system Kay will move through the region. Showers are moving through parts of the county as I type.  The morning showers will decrease, clouds will break up some, and then we’ll see another round of scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon. High temps will be 10 degrees below average.

When the clouds lift above the mountain tops, keep an eye on our highest peaks, like the Rio Grande Pyramid and Summit Peak, for SNOW! The snow level could drop as low as 12,800ft.

Thursday we’ll gradually dry out as remnants of Kay move to our east and ridging builds back into the area. There will still be enough instability and moisture to trigger a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mostly over the mountains.

Friday through Sunday we’re stuck between a developing trough along the West Coast and the sub-tropical high over the southern plains. Drier air will continue to move into our area and give us lots of sun.  Unfortunately upper level flow will increase out of the southwest resulting in afternoon winds up to 30mph Saturday and Sunday.

The pattern gets interesting starting around the 19th. The forecast models are flip-flopping on a potentially strong system impacting parts of the western US.  Right now it looks like most of the moisture and precip will miss us to the north. It’s a dynamic system with a lot of uncertainty.  However it goes, I’m excited to be looking at a change in the seasons!

Water vapor satellite this morning: The remains of Kay are weakening and moving towards the east. The first trough is moving through this morning.  Then there’s a break until the second trough moves through later today and kicks up another round showers and thunderstorms.
Water vapor satellite this morning: The remains of Kay are weakening and moving towards the east. The first trough is moving through this morning.  Then there’s a break until the second trough moves through later today and kicks up another round showers and thunderstorms.
Radar this morning around 8am: Showers were moving towards the northeast through parts of the county. We’ll get a break until later this afternoon when the next round of showers and thunderstorms fire up.
Radar this morning around 8am: Showers were moving towards the northeast through parts of the county. We’ll get a break until later this afternoon when the next round of showers and thunderstorms fire up.

My forecast…

*** The cold spots could dip below freezing Friday through Sunday. *** * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
*** The cold spots could dip below freezing Friday through Sunday. ***
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
HRRR forecast radar from 6am today to 1am tonight – This model handled the bands of showers this morning quite well.  We refer to that as “model verification” and it gives us confidence in the model. Looking forward, we get a break until the next band of showers and thunderstorms move through between 4 and 6pm this afternoon.
HRRR forecast radar from 6am today to 1am tonight – This model handled the bands of showers this morning quite well.  We refer to that as “model verification” and it gives us confidence in the model. Looking forward, we get a break until the next band of showers and thunderstorms move through between 4 and 6pm this afternoon. 
NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.07” in town and up to 0.25” in our mountains. The rain lottery winners will certainly beat that 0.07”!
NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.07” in town and up to 0.25” in our mountains. The rain lottery winners will certainly beat that 0.07”!

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7492 / 19903724 / 1950

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

My next update will be tomorrow morning.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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One Response

  1. Love your weather reports. We are visiting Pagosa Springs in a couple of weeks and it’s great to have accurate information.

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