Foggy morning here in O’Neal Park – Pic taken 9/15/2022
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Thursday – 15 Sep 2022 – 10:00am
The past…
At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 62 and the low this morning was 45. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 60%. Winds at the airfield hit 28mph yesterday.
Precip summary… A batch of showers moved through yesterday morning and then another round moved through in the afternoon. The final batch of showers moved through around 2am. The rain lottery winners for the 2-day event were Val in Lost Valley and Lisa in San Juan Mountain Village.
Below are 24-hour rainfall totals and 48-hour rainfall totals.
Forecast discussion…
Today we’ll gradually dry out as ridging builds back into the area. There will still be enough instability and moisture to trigger an afternoon shower or thunderstorm or two, mostly over the mountains.
Friday through Sunday we’re stuck between a developing trough along the West Coast and the sub-tropical high over the southern plains. Drier air will continue to move into our area and give us lots of sun. Unfortunately upper level flow will increase out of the southwest resulting in afternoon winds up to 30mph Saturday and Sunday.
The pattern gets interesting starting Monday. I’m tracking four different features that are trying to line up to give us a good soaking on Tuesday and Wednesday. For more details, please check out the 500mb charts below with my comments.
Radar this morning doesn’t show anything significant in our area.
My forecast…
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
Closely compare the locations of the two low pressure systems and the one high pressure center. Each feature has a couple hundred mile difference. That discrepancy isn’t bad 5 days out, but I’d like to see them line up better. That should happen as the system nears and the forecast models get a better handle on the pattern.
The green arrows indicate a sub-tropical moisture band being pushed into our area between the low near CA and the high over TX/OK. Right now that moisture band is favorable to give us a good soaking Tuesday and Wednesday. However, if it moves a hundred miles east or west, we’ll hardly get anything.
This is a complicated pattern with multiple ingredients that need to come together to favor us. My forecast confidence is still shaky at this point, but right now it’s looking good. Stay tuned!
The models have been fluctuating considerably so forecast confidence is low at this point. That should change within the next few days as the models get a better handle on things.
Pagosa Springs historical data
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 74 | 89 / 1990 | 36 | 18 / 1950 |
Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.
My next update will be Saturday morning.
– Shawn
