Dry & breezy through the weekend – next week looks interesting…

Foggy morning here in O’Neal Park - Pic taken 9/15/2022

Foggy morning here in O’Neal Park – Pic taken 9/15/2022

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Thursday – 15 Sep 2022 – 10:00am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 62 and the low this morning was 45. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 60%. Winds at the airfield hit 28mph yesterday.

Precip summary… A batch of showers moved through yesterday morning and then another round moved through in the afternoon. The final batch of showers moved through around 2am. The rain lottery winners for the 2-day event were Val in Lost Valley and Lisa in San Juan Mountain Village.

Below are 24-hour rainfall totals and 48-hour rainfall totals. 

CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall reports from today range from 0.01” to 0.53”.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall reports from today range from 0.01” to 0.53”.
CoCoRaHS 48-hour rainfall reports for yesterday and today range from 0.17” to 0.83”.
CoCoRaHS 48-hour rainfall reports for yesterday and today range from 0.17” to 0.83”.

Forecast discussion…

Today we’ll gradually dry out as ridging builds back into the area. There will still be enough instability and moisture to trigger an afternoon shower or thunderstorm or two, mostly over the mountains.

Friday through Sunday we’re stuck between a developing trough along the West Coast and the sub-tropical high over the southern plains. Drier air will continue to move into our area and give us lots of sun.  Unfortunately upper level flow will increase out of the southwest resulting in afternoon winds up to 30mph Saturday and Sunday.

The pattern gets interesting starting Monday. I’m tracking four different features that are trying to line up to give us a good soaking on Tuesday and Wednesday. For more details, please check out the 500mb charts below with my comments.

Water vapor satellite this morning: The tail end of the trough is moving through this morning. Drier air is moving in behind it but a spotty shower or two could pop up later today.
Water vapor satellite this morning: The tail end of the trough is moving through this morning. Drier air is moving in behind it but a spotty shower or two could pop up later today.

Radar this morning doesn’t show anything significant in our area.

My forecast…

*** The cold spots could dip below freezing tonight, tomorrow night, and Saturday night. *** * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
*** The cold spots could dip below freezing tonight, tomorrow night, and Saturday night. ***
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
NWS 72-hour precip shows nothing in town and up to 0.01” in our mountains.
NWS 72-hour precip shows nothing in town and up to 0.01” in our mountains.
Euro 500mb moisture is on the left and the GFS is on the right. Both of these charts are valid on Tuesday at noon. – 500mb is around 18,000ft and it’s a good level to track the overall weather pattern. The greens and blues indicate higher moisture while the browns indicate drier air. Closely compare the locations of the two low pressure systems and the one high pressure center. Each feature has a couple hundred mile difference.  That discrepancy isn’t bad 5 days out, but I’d like to see them line up better. That should happen as the system nears and the forecast models get a better handle on the pattern. The green arrows indicate a sub-tropical moisture band being pushed into our area between the low near CA and the high over TX/OK. Right now that moisture band is favorable to give us a good soaking Tuesday and Wednesday.  However, if it moves a hundred miles east or west, we’ll hardly get anything. This is a complicated pattern with multiple ingredients that need to come together to favor us. My forecast confidence is still shaky at this point, but right now it’s looking good.  Stay tuned!
Euro 500mb moisture is on the left and the GFS is on the right. Both of these charts are valid on Tuesday at noon. – 500mb is around 18,000ft and it’s a good level to track the overall weather pattern. The greens and blues indicate higher moisture while the browns indicate drier air.

Closely compare the locations of the two low pressure systems and the one high pressure center. Each feature has a couple hundred mile difference.  That discrepancy isn’t bad 5 days out, but I’d like to see them line up better. That should happen as the system nears and the forecast models get a better handle on the pattern.

The green arrows indicate a sub-tropical moisture band being pushed into our area between the low near CA and the high over TX/OK. Right now that moisture band is favorable to give us a good soaking Tuesday and Wednesday.  However, if it moves a hundred miles east or west, we’ll hardly get anything.

This is a complicated pattern with multiple ingredients that need to come together to favor us. My forecast confidence is still shaky at this point, but right now it’s looking good.  Stay tuned!
Euro ensemble precip to Friday at 6pm is on the left and the GFS is on the right – The Euro expects Pagosa Springs to get 1.78” while the GFS shows 1.36”. The models have been fluctuating considerably so forecast confidence is low at this point.  That should change within the next few days as the models get a better handle on things.
Euro ensemble precip to Friday at 6pm is on the left and the GFS is on the right – The Euro expects Pagosa Springs to get 1.78” while the GFS shows 1.36”.

The models have been fluctuating considerably so forecast confidence is low at this point.  That should change within the next few days as the models get a better handle on things.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7489 / 19903618 / 1950

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

My next update will be Saturday morning.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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