Remnants of Kay arrive this afternoon…

Mammatus clouds at sunset - Pic taken 9/11/2022

Mammatus clouds at sunset – Pic taken 9/11/2022

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Tuesday – 13 Sep 2022 – 10:10am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 78 and the low this morning was 45. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 17%. Winds at the airfield hit 35mph yesterday. It was a convective gust caused by a nearby thunderstorm around 6pm.

Precip summary… The rain lottery winner yesterday was Hillary near Chromo. The rain lottery winner this morning was Frank in Hidden Valley.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall reports from yesterday range from 0.00” to 0.14”.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall reports from yesterday range from 0.00” to 0.14”.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall reports from today range from 0.00” to 0.14”.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall reports from today range from 0.00” to 0.14”.

Forecast discussion…

Today and tomorrow, the remnants of tropical system Kay will move through the region. Moisture will increase, high temps will be 5-10 degrees below average, and much of the county will get some rain. Precip will fall on and off from Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.

Thursday morning, keep an eye on our highest peaks, like the Rio Grande Pyramid and Summit Peak, for SNOW! The snow level could drop as low as 13,000ft.

Thursday we’ll gradually dry out as remnants of Kay move to our east and ridging builds back into the area. There will still be enough instability and moisture to trigger a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mostly over the mountains.

Friday and Saturday we’re stuck between a developing trough along the West Coast and the sub-tropical high over the southern plains. Drier air will continue to move into our area and give us lots of sun.  Unfortunately upper level flow will increase out of the southwest resulting in afternoon winds up to 25mph.

The pattern gets interesting starting around the 19th. The forecast models are flip-flopping on a potentially strong system impacting parts of the western US.  Right now it looks like most of the moisture and precip will miss us to the north. It’s a dynamic system with a lot of uncertainty.  However it goes, I’m excited to be looking at a change in the seasons!

Water vapor satellite this morning: The remains of Kay are weakening and moving towards the northwest. There is plenty of moisture to fuel off and on showers and thunderstorms starting this afternoon through tomorrow evening.
Water vapor satellite this morning: The remains of Kay are weakening and moving towards the northeast. There is plenty of moisture to fuel off and on showers and thunderstorms starting this afternoon through tomorrow evening.
Radar this morning: Most of the precip is still in southwest UT and northwest AZ.  However, the region will get more active this afternoon as surface heating helps fire up more showers and thunderstorms.
Radar this morning: Most of the precip is still in southwest UT and northwest AZ.  However, the region will get more active this afternoon as surface heating helps fire up more showers and thunderstorms.

My forecast…

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
HRRR forecast radar from noon today to midnight tomorrow – The first few showers develop over the mountains around 2pm and gradually increase through the evening. Then we see scattered showers through tomorrow evening.
HRRR forecast radar from noon today to midnight tomorrow – The first few showers develop over the mountains around 2pm and gradually increase through the evening. Then we see scattered showers through tomorrow evening.
NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.28” in town and up to 0.75” in our mountains. The trend is for slightly less precip.  However this is tropical moisture that will fall in convective showers and thunderstorms.  I expect the rain lottery winners to get over a half inch of rain.
NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.28” in town and up to 0.75” in our mountains. The trend is for slightly less precip.  However this is tropical moisture that will fall in convective showers and thunderstorms.  I expect the rain lottery winners to get over a half inch of rain.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7489 / 19903823 / 1950

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

My next update will be tomorrow morning.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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