Soggy Tuesday and Wednesday…

Our scarecrow under the harvest moon - Pic taken 9/11/2022

Our scarecrow under the harvest moon – Pic taken 9/11/2022

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Sunday – 11 Sep 2022 – 9:25am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 78 and the low this morning was 48. The cold spots dipped into the upper 30s this morning. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 25%. Winds at the airfield hit 20mph yesterday.

Precip summary… Most of the county didn’t get any precip but the rain lottery winner was Hillary near Chromo.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall reports from today range from 0.00” to 0.04”.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall reports from today range from 0.00” to 0.04”.

Forecast discussion…

Upper level ridging will stick with us through Monday. There’s just enough moisture and instability to kick up a few afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday and Wednesday, the remnants of tropical system Kay will move through the region. Moisture will increase, high temps will be 5-10 degrees below average, and much of the county will get a good soaking. Precip will fall on and off from Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday night.

** Thursday morning, keep an eye on our highest peaks, like the Rio Grande Pyramid and Summit Peak, for SNOW! The snow level could drop as low as 13,000ft. **

Thursday we’ll gradually dry out as the remnants of Kay move to our east and ridging builds back into the area. There will still be enough instability and moisture to trigger a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Water vapor satellite this morning: We are on the northern edge of the moisture band. The ridge, blue jagged line, will stick with us through tomorrow, and then the remnants of Kay will move through the region Tuesday and Wednesday.
Water vapor satellite this morning: We are on the northern edge of the moisture band. The ridge, blue jagged line, will stick with us through tomorrow, and then the remnants of Kay will move through the region Tuesday and Wednesday.

There is nothing on radar in our region this morning.

My forecast…

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
NWS 72-hour precip to Wednesday morning shows 0.40” in town and up to 0.75” in our mountains. Most of this precip will fall Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday morning.
NWS 72-hour precip to Wednesday morning shows 0.40” in town and up to 0.75” in our mountains. Most of this precip will fall Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday morning.
Euro model forecast total precip Tuesday at 10am to Wednesday at 6pm – Precip starts to fall around noon Tuesday and falls and off into Wednesday evening. It shows Pagosa Springs getting 0.69” and our mountains getting up to 1.00”.
Euro model forecast total precip Tuesday at 10am to Wednesday at 6pm – Precip starts to fall around noon Tuesday and falls and off into Wednesday evening. It shows Pagosa Springs getting 0.69” and our mountains getting up to 1.00”.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7586 / 19563924 / 1950

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Unless something changes, I’m skipping tomorrow but plan to do posts Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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