Kay’s remains may bring us rain…

Lake Mead

Since the sky is pretty murky today, I’ll post one of my favorite shots from Lake Mead from a few years ago when I went rented a boat and went out on the lake. Photo by Mark Langford

Saturday – 10 September 2022 – 1:30pm update.

The past…

The high on Friday at Stevens Field was 85 and the low this morning was 56. Our humidity bottomed out at 14% and the airport recorded a 25mph wind gust. Rainfall totals ranged from a high of 0.12 to zero.

24hr
COCORAHS rainfall reports over the past 24 hours for the Pagosa Springs area ranged from zero to 0.12.
Week
COCORAHS rainfall reports since Sunday for the Pagosa Springs area ranged from 0.06 to 0.56 downtown.

Forecast discussion…

It turns out that Hurricane Kay’s dying wishes were for her remains to be spread all over the west and that’s exactly what she is getting. Over the next 5 days, Kay’s remains will move all over the west and eventually give us a decent chance for rain on Tuesday and Wednesday when an approaching trough draws in the majority of her leftover moisture over us. Until Tuesday, we will be “living on the edge” of the moisture boundary as dryer air attempts to move south into our area from the north while moisture tries to move in from the west. Look for a primarily cloudy next 5 days (Monday will be the sunniest) with lows in the 40’s and highs in the 60’s-70’s. There will be rain chances every day, but the best odds will be Tuesday and Wednesday.

“Backcountry Shawn” takes over tomorrow. I’m heading to Yellowstone Park and the Grand Tetons next week to take photos…have a good one!

Screenshot 2022 09 10 124520
We are on the border of moist air in the mid-levels (from Kay’s remains) and drier air trying to move south from northern CO.
Screenshot 2022 09 10 124636
The majority of Kay’s remains should arrive on Tuesday-Wednesday, giving us our best odds for rain this week.
Screenshot 2022 09 10 125550
The latest NWS 3-day rainfall forecast model is predicting 0.05 for PagosSprings and 0.08 for Chama.
Screenshot 2022 09 10 124754
The latest EURO model run thinks we could see close to a half an inch of rain by Thursday, with most of it falling on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

My forecast…

Pagosa 5 day forecast 9 9 22
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

Pagosa Springs historical data for Sept. 10th

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7688/ 19453822/ 19102

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

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