Smoke, Kay, rain and cooler temps…

Hurricane Kay

Hurricane Kay looks pretty impressive on satellite imagery this afternoon. As she moves NW, we could tap into some of her moisture by this weekend.

Thursday – 8 September 2022 – 1:15pm update.

The past…

The high on Wednesday at Stevens Field was 85 and the low this morning was 47. Some of you living in and around downtown saw highs in the low 90’s again yesterday. Our humidity bottomed out at 17% and the airport recorded a 20mph wind gust. Rainfall totals ranged from a high of 0.03 to zero. Most of the activity yesterday stayed to our north and west.

Screenshot 2022 09 08 101953
COCORAHS rainfall reports over the past 24 hours for the Pagosa Springs area ranged from zero to 0.03.
Screenshot 2022 09 08 124356
If you think it looks a little smoky outside, you are right. Smoke from northern California and Idaho fires are winding their way around high pressure to our west and moving into our area from the NE. As our mid-level winds switch into the west, then SW later tonight, look for smoke to move out of our area.

Forecast discussion…

Another 24 hours of above normal temps, then a trough and cold front move through on Saturday, not only cooling us down, but raising our rainfall odds and giving us a mostly cloudy weekend. Our mid-level winds are starting to switch into the west this afternoon, ahead of the trough to our NW. This should drive away most of the smoke by tonight. High temps will continue above average (80’s) through Friday, then drop to slightly below normal (60’s-70’s) over the weekend as cooler air arrives. Lows will be mainly in the 40’s. I’m not seeing any freezes for the next 5 days.

Unless something surprising happens over the next 24 hours, my next post will be on Saturday.

Screenshot 2022 09 08 121052
As Hurricane Kay moves NW along the coast of Baja, Mexico, some of its outer bands of clouds (cirrus) are starting to show up in our SW skies this afternoon. Before it makes a hairpin turn on Saturday, Kay will inject some moisture into our area as a trough moves through.
Screenshot 2022 09 08 121336
We could see some moisture from Hurricane Kay move into our area over the weekend.
Screenshot 2022 09 08 121449
The latest NWS 3-day rainfall forecast model is predicting 0.08, for PagosSprings and 0.28 for Chama.
Screenshot 2022 09 08 123822
The latest EURO model run still thinks we could see around a quarter of an inch of rain by Monday, thanks in part to Hurricane Kay. Check out the beneficial rainfall for southern California!

My forecast…

Pagosa 5 day forecast 9 8 22
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

Pagosa Springs historical data for Sept. 8th

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7788/ 19454027/ 1910

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

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