The Monsoon is Sputtering

moutain with a few puffy clouds

Lots of fair weather cumulus in the area today but very little vertical development. Pic taken 8/29/2022

Monday – 29 Aug 2022 – 5:00pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high so far today has been 80 and the low this morning was 44. Humidity this afternoon dropped to 19%! Winds at the airfield hit 37mph yesterday but only 16mph so far today.

Precip summary… Rain favored the northern part of the county yesterday. There were several locations that had over 1/4″ as a few nice fat cells moved from the northwest to the southeast yesterday in the afternoon.

CoCoRaHS 29 Aug 2022
Today’s CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall reports shows yesterday afternoon’s rain fall total ranged from 0 to .25.

Forecast discussion…

We are now in the sputter and start phase of the monsoon. As the sun heads south for the winter, temperatures across the region are cooling and in turn, the ridge is weakening and the easterly flow that has been advecting in moisture is getting cut off.

Ridging has built in over the region with High Pressure to our west. This has cut off the monsoon moisture and has stabilized the atmosphere leading to very few spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Today and tomorrow we may see a few around sunset. The setting sun destabilizes the atmosphere as the cloud tops cool. This often results in a sunset surprise even on day like today. Any thunderstorms should be confined to the mountain areas.

On Wednesday, a little moisture will sneak into the flow and that will result in a few more showers and thunderstorms. But still, just a couple and mostly over the mountains.

Thursday and Friday will be pleasant days again with very few showers and thunderstorms.

Temps will be warm and average 5 degrees above average. However, the drier air will lead to cooler morning temps – dry air results in bigger temperature swings between highs and lows. The drier area will also lead to gustier afternoon winds especially near any showers and thunderstorms.

Sat 29 Aug 2022
Satellite image from this afternoon shows mostly little skies across our region with only fair weather cumulus with very little vertical development.

My Forecast

Pagosa 5 day forecast

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7990 / 19854229 / 1956

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

I’ll have the next update out on Wednesday.  Keep an eye out for the August summary and September outlook post on Thursday.

– Arleen

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Arleen Pro

I grew up in Montana where my love of the mountains is rooted. I was in the Air Force, forecasting aviation weather, for 24 years. I had eight assignments and my favorites were Colorado, Alaska, Korea, and Germany. I deployed a number of times including to Iraq and Afghanistan. After RV traveling for nine years, we found paradise in Pagosa. Here we enjoy playing outside in the spectacular San Juan mountains!
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