We’ll continue playing the rain lottery…

High in the Weminuche Wilderness – Williams Creek Reservoir is center-left and Cimarrona Peak is center-right - Pic taken 8/29/2022

High in the Weminuche Wilderness – Williams Creek Reservoir is center-left and Cimarrona Peak is center-right – Pic taken 8/29/2022

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Wednesday – 31 Aug 2022 – 6:45pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high today was 81 and the low this morning was 50. The cold spots dipped into the low 40s this morning. Humidity this afternoon has bottomed out at 30%. Winds at the airfield hit 16mph today.

Precip summary… The rain lottery winners were Jerry and Steve near Forest Lake.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall reports from today range from 0.00” to 0.58”.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall reports from today range from 0.00” to 0.58”.

Forecast discussion…

The upper level high is parked over the Great Basin and will stay there for the next 7 days. Clockwise flow around the high is out of the north in our region.  Moisture and instability are waning, but we’ll still see hit and miss afternoon showers thunderstorms.

Temps will remain slightly above average and the drier air will lead to cooler morning temps – dry air results in bigger temperature swings between highs and lows.

Infrared satellite image from 5pm: The upper level high is over the Great Basin resulting in northerly flow over us.  A couple of thunderstorms developed over Archuleta County this afternoon, but it was quiet over much of the region.
Infrared satellite image from 5pm: The upper level high is over the Great Basin resulting in northerly flow over us.  A couple of thunderstorms developed over Archuleta County this afternoon, but it was quiet over much of the region.
Radar from 5pm: Showers and thunderstorms moved north to south across mostly the southern half of the county.
Radar from 5pm: Showers and thunderstorms moved north to south across mostly the southern half of the county.

My forecast…

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
NWS 72-hour precip shows nothing in town and up to 0.25” in our mountains.
NWS 72-hour precip shows nothing in town and up to 0.25” in our mountains.
Euro ensemble 10-day precip through 11 Sep at 6am – It shows Pagosa Springs getting 0.51” and our mountains getting up to 0.75”. The GFS ensemble says 0.34” and the NBM says 0.07”.
Euro ensemble 10-day precip through 11 Sep at 6am – It shows Pagosa Springs getting 0.51” and our mountains getting up to 0.75”. The GFS ensemble says 0.34” and the NBM says 0.07”.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7990 / 19854130 / 1962

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

My next forecast post will be Friday evening.  Tomorrow I’ll do the August summary and September outlook.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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