Drier this week and warmer…

A couple of thunderstorms moved through the northern part of the county yesterday - Pic taken 8/26/2022

A couple of thunderstorms moved through the northern part of the county yesterday – Pic taken 8/26/2022

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Saturday – 27 Aug 2022 – 3:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high so far today is 74 and the low this morning was 50. The cold spots dipped into the mid-40s this morning. Humidity this afternoon has bottomed out at 32%. Winds at the airfield hit 21mph yesterday.

Precip summary… Rain favored the northern part of the county yesterday. The rain lottery winners were Val in Lost Valley and Lisa in San Juan River Village.

Check out the 6-day precip totals in the second CoCoRaHS map below.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall reports from today range from 0.00” to 0.71”.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall reports from today range from 0.00” to 0.71”.
CoCoRaHS rainfall totals 22-27 August range from 0.12” to 3.39”. The northern part of the county has had a wet week.
CoCoRaHS rainfall totals 22-27 August range from 0.12” to 3.39”. The northern part of the county has had a wet week.

Forecast discussion…

Ridging will slowly build over the region through the weekend. Instability will remain high but there will be less moisture to work with.  Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will develop in the afternoons but will be hit and miss.

Monday through the rest of the week, high pressure will build over Utah and then move west towards the Great Basin.  Monday and Tuesday this will cut off the monsoon moisture and stabilize the atmosphere leading to just a few spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mostly over the mountains.

Wednesday through Friday moisture and instability increase a bit so there will be a couple more afternoon showers and thunderstorms, but they will still be hit and miss.

Temps will warm back to average to 5 degrees above average and the drier air will lead to cooler morning temps – dry air results in bigger temperature swings between highs and lows.

Monsoon storms are hit and miss and can produce quick bursts of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lighting.

Low level water vapor loop this afternoon from 1pm to 2:45pm: Drier air has moved in indicated by the yellow and orange.  Showers and a few thunderstorms have developed over the mountains.
Low level water vapor loop this afternoon from 1pm to 2:45pm: Drier air has moved in indicated by the yellow and orange.  Showers and a few thunderstorms have developed over the mountains.
Radar this afternoon: Showers and thunderstorms are moving towards the southeast.  Green and yellow are light to moderate rain while blues might be spotty light rain.
Radar this afternoon: Showers and thunderstorms are moving towards the southeast.  Green and yellow are light to moderate rain while blues might be spotty light rain. 

My forecast…

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
NWS 66-hour precip shows nothing in town and up to 0.25” in our mountains.
NWS 66-hour precip shows nothing in town and up to 0.25” in our mountains.
Euro ensemble 10-day precip through 6 Sep at 6am – It shows Pagosa Springs getting 0.44” and our mountains getting up to 0.75”. The GFS ensemble says 0.54” and the NBM says 0.04”(?). This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss and fall mostly in the afternoons and evenings. Precip amounts with summer showers and thunderstorms vary considerably.
Euro ensemble 10-day precip through 6 Sep at 6am – It shows Pagosa Springs getting 0.44” and our mountains getting up to 0.75”. The GFS ensemble says 0.54” and the NBM says 0.04”(?). This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss and fall mostly in the afternoons and evenings. Precip amounts with summer showers and thunderstorms vary considerably.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7990 / 19854229 / 1956

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Arleen will do the next post on Monday.  Keep an eye out for the August summary and September outlook post on Thursday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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