Another soaker today and then we gradually dry out…

A foggy sunrise yesterday – Pic taken 8/25/2022

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Friday – 26 Aug 2022 – 10:30am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday afternoon was 76 and the low this morning was 54. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 35%. Winds at the airfield hit 22mph yesterday.

Precip summary… The rain lottery winner today was Val in Lost Valley. Yesterday’s rain lottery winner was Lisa in San Juan River Village.

** A big THANKS to Leo and Udgar for joining the CoCoRaHS team! **

CoCoRaHS folks expect an email later today with details about a potluck in October.

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall reports from today range from 0.03” to 0.64”.*

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall reports from yesterday range from 0.01” to 0.58”.*

Forecast discussion…

Today a weak trough will slowly move through Colorado. Upper level southwest flow, forcing ahead of the trough, and plenty of monsoon moisture will result in another soggy day and patchy morning fog.

Ridging will move in Saturday and Sunday. Instability remains high but there will be less moisture to work with. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will develop in the afternoons but will be more hit and miss.

Monday through Wednesday will be mostly dry with a just a slight chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm, mostly over the mountains. Temps will warm back to average to 5 degrees above average and the drier air will lead to cooler morning temps – dry air results in bigger temperature swings between highs and lows.

Monsoon storms are hit and miss and can produce quick bursts of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lighting.

Water vapor analysis this morning: The trough currently over western UT will move through Colorado tonight. The heart of the monsoon plume will be over us today, so we’ll have another soggy day. Things will slowly dry out behind trough, especially Monday through Wednesday.

*Radar this morning: Showers are lingering over the northwest part of Pagosa Country and moving towards the northeast.*

My forecast…

Today is our best chance for another soaking and then we’ll start drying out. * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning. — ***Today is our best chance for another soaking and then we’ll start drying out.***
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

NAM forecast radar from 6am this morning to 3 am tonight: As I type, the first round of showers is lingering over the northwest part of Pagosa Country but about done for everyone else. The second round of showers moves through between 1 and 3pm. The final round is roughly 7pm to midnight.

NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.30” of rain in town and up to 1.00” in our mountains. This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss. A single cell can drop a bunch of rain and small hail over a small area in a hurry. — *NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.30” of rain in town and up to 1.00” in our mountains. Most of this precip will fall today.*

Euro ensemble 10-day precip through 5 Sep at 6am – It shows Pagosa Springs getting 0.84” and our mountains getting up to 1.20”. The GFS ensemble says 0.90” and the NBM says 0.22”. This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss and fall mostly in the afternoons and evenings. Precip amounts with summer showers and thunderstorms vary considerably.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
79	88 / 1985	42	26 / 1956

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

My next post will be tomorrow afternoon. I’ll include precip totals for the week and river flow. I’ll hold off on drought maps until my monthly summary post on Thursday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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