Best chance for showers & thunderstorms is tomorrow & Friday…

An evening monsoon shower over the Plumtaw area - Pic taken 8/23/2022

An evening monsoon shower over the Plumtaw area – Pic taken 8/23/2022

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Wednesday – 24 Aug 2022 – 8:55am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday afternoon was 75 and the low this morning was 49.  The cold spots dipped into the low 40s. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 34%. Winds at the airfield hit 23mph yesterday.

Precip summary… The rain lottery winner both today and yesterday was Val in the Lost Valley!

CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall reports from today range from 0.01” to 0.53”.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall reports from today range from 0.01” to 0.53”.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall reports from yesterday range from a trace to 0.72”.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall reports from yesterday range from a trace to 0.72”.

Forecast discussion…

Moisture and instability are marginal today for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, but a few will pop up.  Cell movement will initially be north to south and then shift northeast to southwest by evening.

Thursday and Friday a weak trough will slowly move through northern Colorado.  Upper level southwest flow, forcing ahead of the trough, and an increase in moisture will ramp up shower and thunderstorm activity for us.

Ridging and drier air will move in Saturday and Sunday making conditions marginal again for spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Monsoon storms are hit and miss and can produce quick bursts of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lighting.

Water vapor analysis this morning: We are on the edge of the monsoon moisture today.  As the trough slowly moves through northern Colorado tomorrow and Friday, it will push more moisture into our area from the southwest.
Water vapor analysis this morning: We are on the edge of the monsoon moisture today.  As the trough slowly moves through northern Colorado tomorrow and Friday, it will push more moisture into our area from the southwest.

Radar didn’t indicate anything in our area this morning.

My forecast…

The best chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms is Thursday and Friday. * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
The best chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms is Thursday and Friday.
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
HRRR forecast radar from 1pm today to 6 am Friday: Today the first couple of showers develop over the mountains around 1pm. Initially cell movement is from the north to the south and then shifts northeast to southwest by evening.  Tomorrow cells are more widespread and persist until midnight.  Cell movement initially is north to south and then shifts west to the east.
HRRR forecast radar from 1pm today to 6 am Friday: Today the first couple of showers develop over the mountains around 1pm. Initially cell movement is from the north to the south and then shifts northeast to southwest by evening.  Tomorrow cells are more widespread and persist until midnight.  Cell movement initially is north to south and then shifts west to the east.
NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.40” of rain in town and up to 1.40” in our mountains.  This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss. A single cell can drop a bunch of rain and small hail over a small area in a hurry.
NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.40” of rain in town and up to 1.40” in our mountains.  This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss. A single cell can drop a bunch of rain and small hail over a small area in a hurry.
Euro ensemble 10-day precip through 2 Sep at 6am – It shows Pagosa Springs getting 0.82” and our mountains getting up to 1.30”. The GFS ensemble says 1.03” and the NBM says 0.62”. This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss and fall mostly in the afternoons and evenings. Precip amounts with summer showers and thunderstorms vary considerably.
Euro ensemble 10-day precip through 2 Sep at 6am – It shows Pagosa Springs getting 0.82” and our mountains getting up to 1.30”. The GFS ensemble says 1.03” and the NBM says 0.62”. This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss and fall mostly in the afternoons and evenings. Precip amounts with summer showers and thunderstorms vary considerably.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7988 / 19854329 / 1956

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Unless something pops up, my next post will be on Friday. 

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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2 Responses

  1. Hi Shawn,
    I read your report every day and when we’re not in Pagosa Springs, we look at our Ring app to see what the weather is doing. Thank you so much for keeping us informed!

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