Best chance for afternoon showers & thunderstorms today, Thursday, and Friday…

A colorful precursor to “sunrise surprise” showers - Pic taken 8/22/2022

A colorful precursor to “sunrise surprise” showers – Pic taken 8/22/2022

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Monday – 22 Aug 2022 – 9:45am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday afternoon was 72 and the low this morning was 54. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 42%. Winds at the airfield hit 18mph yesterday.

Precip summary… The rain lottery winner was Lisa in San Juan River Village! 

CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall reports from today range from zero to 0.80”.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall reports from today range from zero to 0.80”.

Forecast discussion…

The trough is on our doorstep and contributing to instability today.  The trough is pushing the monsoon plume slowly to the south and upper flow will turn northerly as the ridge moves in behind it over the next few days.

Moisture and instability will remain high enough for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.  However, things are less certain Tuesday and Wednesday as moisture and instability drop slightly below thresholds for showers.

Later in the week another trough will move through northern Colorado.  Upper level southwest flow and forcing ahead of the trough will ramp up shower and thunderstorm activity Thursday and Friday.

Monsoon storms are hit and miss and can produce quick bursts of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lighting.

Water vapor analysis this morning: The trough is on our doorstep and it’s pushing the monsoon plume to our south. Today will still be active with enough moisture in place and added instability from the trough. The ridge over the Great Basin will move towards the Four Corners over the next few days.
Water vapor analysis this morning: The trough is on our doorstep and it’s pushing the monsoon plume to our south. Today will still be active with enough moisture in place and added instability from the trough. The ridge over the Great Basin will move towards the Four Corners over the next few days.
Radar this morning: At 7:50am there were two small cells over Archuleta County that were both moving very slowly towards the southeast. Storms later today and again tomorrow will move from the north to the south.
Radar this morning: At 7:50am there were two small cells over Archuleta County that were both moving very slowly towards the southeast.
** Storms later today and again tomorrow will move from the north to the south. **
Zoomed in low-level water vapor image from 7:30am: This is a good example of how small and isolated these cells are.  It’s all about timing, location, and cell movement. These “slow movers” need to develop over your head to get a good soaking. Just a mile or two away little to no rain falls.  This is why we call it “playing the rain lottery”.
Zoomed in low-level water vapor image from 7:30am: This is a good example of how small and isolated these cells are.  It’s all about timing, location, and cell movement. These “slow movers” need to develop over your head to get a good soaking. Just a mile or two away little to no rain falls.  This is why we call it “playing the rain lottery”.

My forecast…

The best chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms is today, Thursday, and Friday. * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
The best chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms is today, Thursday, and Friday.
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.15” of rain in town and up to 1.20” in the South San Juans.  This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss. A single cell can drop a bunch of rain and small hail over a small area in a hurry.
NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.15” of rain in town and up to 1.20” in the South San Juans.  This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss. A single cell can drop a bunch of rain and small hail over a small area in a hurry.
Euro ensemble 10-day precip through 1 Sep at 6am – It shows Pagosa Springs getting 1.25” and our mountains getting up to 2.00”. The GFS ensemble says 1.39” and the NBM says 0.74”. This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss and fall mostly in the afternoons and evenings. Precip amounts with summer showers and thunderstorms vary considerably.
Euro ensemble 10-day precip through 1 Sep at 6am – It shows Pagosa Springs getting 1.25” and our mountains getting up to 2.00”. The GFS ensemble says 1.39” and the NBM says 0.74”. This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss and fall mostly in the afternoons and evenings. Precip amounts with summer showers and thunderstorms vary considerably.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7991 / 19104429 / 1956

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Unless something pops up, my next post will be on Wednesday. 

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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