Scattered afternoon showers & thunderstorms all week…

A small cap cloud over the Rio Grande Pyramid and valley fog this morning – Pic taken 8/21/2022

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Sunday – 21 Aug 2022 – 8:50am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday afternoon was 68 and the low this morning was 46. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 45%. Winds at the airfield hit 9mph yesterday. The cold spots dipped into the mid to upper 30s this morning. The colder temps are a result of less moisture and longer nights. Due to cloud cover and moisture afternoon high temps have been 10 degrees below average.

Precip summary… The rain lottery winner was Patricia near Chromo.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall reports from today range from zero to 0.06”. ** A big thanks to Michael in Aspen Springs for joining the CoCoRaHS team! ** — *CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall reports from today range from zero to 0.06”.*
** A big thanks to Michael in Aspen Springs for joining the CoCoRaHS team! **

Forecast discussion…

A trough is moving through northwest Colorado and a ridge is building over the Great Basin. Drier air is trying to filter in from the west but there is still plenty of moisture to fuel afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

The first half of the week, the upper level high will slowly move west towards the Four Corners. Moisture and instability will remain high enough for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. However, things are less certain Tuesday as moisture and instability drop slightly below thresholds for showers.

Later in the week another trough will move through northern Colorado. Upper level southwest flow and forcing ahead of the trough will help fuel shower and thunderstorm activity through Friday.

Monsoon storms are hit and miss and can produce quick bursts of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lighting.

Water vapor analysis this morning: Moisture has decreased in our area, but we are still under the monsoon plume. This will work in our favor today: fewer clouds equal more surface warming which equals more afternoon convective activity.

At 8:30am there was nothing significant on radar in our area.

My forecast…

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

HRRR forecast radar from 11am today to midnight tomorrow – Today the first cells develop over the mountains around noon. The best chance for storms in the valley is 3-8pm and movement is from the northwest towards the southeast. Tomorrow the first cells develop over the mountains around 1pm and cell movement is from the north towards the south.

NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.22” of rain in town and up to 1.20” in our mountains. This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss. A single cell can drop a bunch of rain and small hail over a small area in a hurry.

Euro ensemble 10-day precip through 31 Aug at 6am – It shows Pagosa Springs getting 1.42” and our mountains getting up to 2.00”. The GFS ensemble says 1.39” and the NBM says 0.62”. This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss and fall mostly in the afternoons and evenings. Precip amounts with summer showers and thunderstorms vary considerably.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
79	90 / 1910	44	28 / 1964

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

My next post will be tomorrow.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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