Cloudy, cool with a chance for rain.

Violas

My violas are enjoying our cool, wet days…

Sat – 20 August 2022 – 8:45am update.

The past…

The high on Friday at Stevens Field was 70 and the low this morning was 55. Our humidity bottomed out at 54% and the airport recorded a 22mph wind gust. Rainfall totals ranged from a high of 0.09 (my backyard) to zero. These totals were less than what the models were forecasting.

Screenshot 2022 08 20 082631
COCORAHS rainfall reports over the past 24 hours for the Pagosa Springs area ranged from zero to 0.09.
Screenshot 2022 08 20 082733
COCORAHS rainfall totals from Sunday through today ranged from a low of 0.02 near Chama, NM to a high of 0.75 in downtown Pagosa Springs. Fortunately, most of us saw around a half inch for the week.
Screenshot 2022 08 20 081608
8:15am radar shows a large area of rain to our south, but most of it is tracking east of us with cells moving to the NE.

Forecast discussion…

While we will continue to be in a monsoon pattern, recent model runs are trending drier for our area, keeping the heavier rain to our south for the next week. As we saw yesterday, most of the rain that fell was from showers instead of thunderstorms, which usually means lower rain totals. Look for a mostly cloudy week with a chance for daily showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be close to normal for our lows (40’s to 50’s) but below normal for our highs (low to mid 70’s) with the extra clouds around.

For all of you visiting our beautiful area, please be careful when you go out on hikes, especially in the afternoons. Totally clear mornings can quickly turn into stormy afternoons with 20-30 degree drop in temps, heavy rain, hail, lightning and gusty winds over 40mph! Make sure you pack rain gear because being wet when temps drop to the 50’s can be more than uncomfortable…it can be dangerous.

Screenshot 2022 08 20 080117
Although we continue to be in the monsoon flow, there is some drier air in the mid-levels (yellow) to our west that may reduce our rain totals today.
Screenshot 2022 08 20 080505
The latest NWS 3-day rainfall forecast model is predicting 0.4 inches for Pagosa Springs, 0.7 inch for Chama and 0.7 inch for the mountains. Recent model runs are trending lower rain totals for us for the next three days.
Screenshot 2022 08 20 081130
The latest NBM model is predicting 0.84 inches of rain for us through the end of the month.

My forecast…

Pagosa 5 day forecast 8 20 22
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

Pagosa Springs historical data for Aug 20th

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8090/ 19454530/ 1985

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

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