Back in the plume again…

Cover

DeJa’Vu! This looks almost like the image I used on Wednesday, but this one was taken at 12:45pm today. We are back in the monsoon plume again!

Friday – 19 August 2022 – 1:30pm update.

The past…

The high on Thursday at Stevens Field was 80 and the low this morning was 53. Our humidity bottomed out at 20% and the airport recorded a 16mph wind gust. Rainfall totals ranged from 0.41 to 0.00. A few rain lottery winners near North Pagosa and HWY 160 got lucky last night around 2am when a random cell formed and dropped some nice rain over that area.

Screenshot 2022 08 19 123701
COCORAHS rainfall reports over the past 24 hours for the Pagosa Springs area ranged from 0.41 of an inch near Borns Lake Reservoir to 0.0 for many of us.
Screenshot 2022 08 19 124710
12:45pm radar is showing mainly light rain across our area as of post time. We should see more activity develop this afternoon and evening. Movement today is NE.
Screenshot 2022 08 19 130825
We are in the Yellow Zone for excessive rain potential today. The heaviest rain will fall in southern New Mexico and Arizona.

Forecast discussion…

What a difference a day makes! After a very inactive day yesterday, we are seeing the opposite situation today as we return to a wet SW flow again thanks to high pressure being undercut by a shortwave trough. We should see our monsoon pattern continue for at least the next five days, with Saturday and Sunday being the most active days for rain. Most of the heavier rain will stay in southern New Mexico and Arizona.

For all of you visiting our beautiful area, please be careful when you go out on hikes, especially in the afternoons. Totally clear mornings can quickly turn into stormy afternoons with 20-30 degree drop in temps, heavy rain, hail, lightning and gusty winds over 40mph! Make sure you pack rain gear because being wet when temps drop to the 50’s can be more than uncomfortable…it can be dangerous.

Screenshot 2022 08 19 125112
Back in the monsoon flow again thanks to high pressure being undercut by a shortwave trough. We should stay in this pattern for at least another 5 days.
Screenshot 2022 08 19 130253
The latest NWS 3-day rainfall forecast model is predicting 0.5 inches for Pagosa Springs, 0.6 inch for Chama and 0.9 inch for the mountains.
Screenshot 2022 08 19 130557
The latest NBM model is predicting 1.23 inches of rain for us over the next 10 days.

My forecast…

Pagosa 5 day forecast 8 19 22
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

Pagosa Springs historical data for Aug 19th

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8092/ 19864427/ 1950

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

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