Better late than never!

Cover

It’s looking like a much more active afternoon than yesterday as this storm drops rain to the north of Pagosa Peak at 12:30pm.

Wednesday – 17 August 2022 – 12:30pm update.

The past…

The high on Tuesday at Stevens Field was 80 and the low this morning was 56. Our humidity bottomed out at 28% and the airport recorded a 28mph wind gust. Rainfall totals ranged from 0.47 to 0.05, but most of us saw around a tenth of an inch again.

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COCORAHS rainfall reports over the past 24 hours for the Pagosa Springs area ranged from nearly a half inch south of town to 0.05 to our west.
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12:30pm radar is already looking more active than at any time yesterday afternoon!

Forecast discussion…

Just when I was about to give up on any of us getting measurable precipitation, some left-over storms managed to move in from New Mexico after sunset to save the day! Shawn and I are both shaking our heads on what happened (or didn’t happen) yesterday. On paper, everything looked promising for a very active afternoon and evening, but most of only saw harmless towering cumulus clouds drift by during the day until the rain moved in late yesterday evening. One thing that has happened, is that our monsoon plume has been a bit disrupted as seen on the latest water vapor imagery. Even so, with our PW (Precipitable Water) still at over an inch, there continues to be a good chance for storms this afternoon and evening. As I mentioned yesterday, storms will be slow movers, so any of us could see 1/2 inch of rain or more from a cell that forms on top of you. By Friday, thanks to several changes, including high pressure building off the west coast, the models are once again ramping up our rain odds through the weekend as a better plume of moisture moves in.

For all of you visiting our beautiful area, please be careful when you go out on hikes, especially in the afternoons. Totally clear mornings can quickly turn into stormy afternoons with 20-30 degree drop in temps, heavy rain, hail, lightning and gusty winds over 40mph! Make sure you pack rain gear because being wet when temps drop to the 50’s can be more than uncomfortable…it can be dangerous.

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Although our monsoon flow has been a little disrupted, I still expect there will be quite a few storms around this afternoon and evening. The Texas low pressure continues to move west and will bring lots of rain to southern NM and AZ over the next couple of days. Some of that moisture could be drawn into our monsoon flow.
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The latest NWS 3-day rainfall forecast model is predicting 0.6 inches for Pagosa Springs, 0.7 inch for Chama and 1 inch for the mountains.
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The latest NBM run is predicting over an inch and a half of rain for our area over the next week.

My forecast…

Pagosa 5 day forecast 8 17 22
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

Pagosa Springs historical data for Aug 17th

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8090/ 19404529/ 1950

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

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