Great rain odds continue…

Fog

Shawn shot this great fog photo at their place this morning…I’m jealous that he and Arleen get foggy mornings and I don’t, even though we only live a couple of miles from each other!

Tuesday – 16 August 2022 – 1:30pm update.

The past…

The high on Monday at Stevens Field was 79 and the low this morning was 53. Our humidity bottomed out at 29% and the airport recorded a 24mph wind gust. Rainfall totals ranged from 0.79 to 0.0, but most of us saw around a tenth of an inch.

Screenshot 2022 08 16 122924
COCORAHS rainfall reports for the Pagosa Springs area over the past 24 hours were better than the past 24 hours and should be even better over the next 24 hours!
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There is a chance for some scattered heavy downpours this afternoon as storms will be moving very slowly.

Forecast discussion…

Our tropical conveyor belt remains in place and with some daytime heating, look for an active afternoon and evening of numerous thunderstorms and showers. Any storms that do form will be slow movers, so there is the potential some of us will see over an inch of rain in our gauges this afternoon. As of this post, I see continued decent chances for rain through this weekend with 1-2 inch totals for most of us.

For all of you visiting our beautiful area, please be careful when you go out on hikes, especially in the afternoons. Totally clear mornings can quickly turn into stormy afternoons with 20-30 degree drop in temps, heavy rain, hail, lightning and gusty winds over 40mph! Make sure you pack rain gear because being wet when temps drop to the 50’s can be more than uncomfortable…it can be dangerous.

Screenshot 2022 08 16 123844 1
A low pressure with lots of tropical moisture continues to track from the El Paso, TX area towards Mexico. I still think some of the moisture from this low will add to our rainfall totals later this week. Our mid-level winds continue to bring in lots of deep moisture into our area from the SW. Combined with some daytime heating, we should see a lot of thunderstorm activity this afternoon and evening.
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The latest NWS 3-day rainfall forecast model is now predicting about half of the rain that they were predicting yesterday at this time for Pagosa Springs. 0.6 inches for Pagosa Springs, 1 inch for Chama and 1.2 inches for the mountains.
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The WPC has our area in the Yellow Zone for the potential for excessive rain today.

My forecast…

Pagosa 5 day forecast 8 16 22
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

Pagosa Springs historical data for Aug 16th

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8189/ 19594432 / 1913

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

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