Only the beginning, only just the start…

Village Lake

A peaceful start to the day at Village Lake…photo taken around 11:30am this morning by Mark Langford.

Monday – 15 August 2022 – 1:30pm update.

The past…

The high on Sunday at Stevens Field was 84 and the low this morning was 50. Our humidity bottomed out at 19% and the airport recorded a 35mph wind gust as the storms rolled in around sunset. Rainfall totals looked like they were going to be zero for most of us yesterday, but thanks to a storm complex that moved through around sunset, a few of us north of Hatcher Lake reported over a tenth of an inch.

Screenshot 2022 08 15 081818
COCORAHS rainfall reports for the Pagosa Springs area over the past 24 hours.

Forecast discussion…

All the pieces are coming together for a very active weather week! The event starts later this afternoon, then ramps up on Tuesday and Wednesday. Thanks to a trough in Utah tracking east and the ridge nudging SE, the monsoon plume is moving into a perfect position to give us copious quantities of rainfall over the several days. As we saw last night, storms will continue to move in even after the sun sets and could continue into the night. While there will be some minor changes in our upper atmosphere over the next several days, we will find ourselves in the middle of the tropical conveyor belt through at least the weekend. Most of the models are now predicting 2-3 inches of rain over the next 7 days with much of that occurring over the next 3 days.

For all of you visiting our beautiful area, please be careful when you go out on hikes, especially in the afternoons. Totally clear mornings can quickly turn into stormy afternoons with 20-30 degree drop in temps, heavy rain, hail, lightning and gusty winds over 40mph! Make sure you pack rain gear because being wet when temps drop to the 50’s can be more than uncomfortable…it can be dangerous.

Screenshot 2022 08 15 125335
Thanks to a trough in Utah tracking east and the ridge nudging SE, the monsoon plume is moving into a perfect position to give us copious quantities of rainfall over the next week. A surface low with lots of tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is moving west into Mexico and may add even more octane to our rain odds.
Screenshot 2022 08 15 130358
The latest NWS 3-day rainfall forecast is now predicting 1.3 inches for Pagosa Springs, 1.3 inches for Chama and 1.7 inches for the mountains.
Screenshot 2022 08 15 074521
The WPC has our area in the Yellow Zone for the potential for excessive rain on Tuesday.

My forecast…

Pagosa 5 day forecast 8 15 22
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

Pagosa Springs historical data for Aug 15th

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8090/ 19624432 / 1950

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

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