Mostly dry & warm through the weekend – More active & more wet next week…

There are a few small cumulus clouds over the mountains this morning - Pic taken 8/12/2022

There are a few small cumulus clouds over the mountains this morning – Pic taken 8/12/2022

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Friday – 12 Aug 2022 – 9:45am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday afternoon was 83 and the low this morning was 54. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 21%. Winds at the airfield hit 22mph yesterday.

Precip summary… No precip was reported yesterday morning. Last night a “sunset surprise” shower moved across the north part of the county.  The rain lottery winner was Gerry on Roush. 

CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall reports from today range from zero to 0.13”.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall reports from today range from zero to 0.13”.

Forecast discussion…

The upper level high is now centered over northeast Colorado.  This puts us on the dry and stable side of the low with upper level southeasterly flow.

Through the weekend, Cape, a measure instability, and precipitable water, the amount of water potentially available for precip, will remain slightly below the thresholds for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.  There is still a slight chance, but they’ll be few and far between and mostly over the mountains.

Monday, the high will be slightly farther east and upper level flow will turn more southerly.  The monsoon plume will start shifting farther east and instability will increase leading to an increase of afternoon storms.  The second half of next week will be more active and more wet.

Monsoon storms are hit and miss and can produce quick bursts of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lighting.

Water vapor analysis this morning: The high is over northeast Colorado.  Clockwise flow around the high, indicated by the blue arrows, is pushing drier air into our area from the southeast.  However, we are close to the eastern edge of the monsoon plume, indicated by the green lines.
Water vapor analysis this morning: The high is over northeast Colorado.  Clockwise flow around the high, indicated by the blue arrows, is pushing drier air into our area from the southeast.  However, we are close to the eastern edge of the monsoon plume, indicated by the green lines.

At 9:00am there was nothing significant on radar in our area.

My forecast…

Through the weekend afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be few and far between. Starting Monday, afternoon storm activity will start increasing. Next week will be more active and more wet. * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
Through the weekend afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be few and far between. Monday, afternoon storm activity will start increasing. Next week will be more active and more wet.

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.03” of rain in town and up to 0.30” in our mountains.  This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss. A single cell can drop a bunch of rain and small hail over a small area in a hurry.
NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.03” of rain in town and up to 0.30” in our mountains.  This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss. A single cell can drop a bunch of rain and small hail over a small area in a hurry.
Euro ensemble 10-day precip through 23 Aug at 6am – It shows Pagosa Springs getting 1.56” and our mountains getting up to 2.25”. The GFS ensemble says 1.67” and the NBM says 2.35”. This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss and fall mostly in the afternoons and evenings. Precip amounts with summer showers and thunderstorms vary considerably.
Euro ensemble 10-day precip through 23 Aug at 6am – It shows Pagosa Springs getting 1.56” and our mountains getting up to 2.25”. The GFS ensemble says 1.67” and the NBM says 2.35”. This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss and fall mostly in the afternoons and evenings. Precip amounts with summer showers and thunderstorms vary considerably.
Light at the end of the tunnel! - The Climate Prediction Center 6-10 day precip outlook for 17-21 Aug indicates a good chance for us to get above average precip.
Light at the end of the tunnel! – The Climate Prediction Center 6-10 day precip outlook for 17-21 Aug indicates a good chance for us to get above average precip. I like to see the “Above” bullseye over us!

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8089 / 19724533 / 1950

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Unless something pops up, Mark will do the next post on Sunday. 

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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