Slight chance for PM showers & thunderstorms next 5 days…

Love these beautiful scenes in the high country – Pic taken 8/9/2022

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Wednesday – 10 Aug 2022 – 8:15pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high this afternoon was 84 and the low this morning was 53. Humidity this afternoon bottomed out at 21%. Winds at the airfield hit 18mph.

Precip summary… Yesterday the rain lottery winners were Val in Lost Valley and Lisa in San Juan River Village. 24-hour reports from this morning indicate that Terry was the rain lottery winner near Chromo.

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall reports from yesterday range from zero to 0.58”.*

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall reports from today range from zero to 0.33”.*

Forecast discussion…

The upper level high is now centered over north-central Colorado. This puts us on the dry and stable side of the low with upper level easterly flow.

For the next five days, Cape, a measure instability, and precipitable water, the amount of water potentially available for precip, will remain slightly below the thresholds for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. There is still a slight chance but they’ll be few and far between and mostly over the mountains.

I expect the high to shift to our east starting around Tuesday. This will turn our flow more southerly and help push monsoon moisture back into our area. The second half of next week will be more active and more wet.

Monsoon storms are hit and miss and can produce quick bursts of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lighting.

Water vapor loop this afternoon: The upper level high is over north-central Colorado which puts us and eastern Colorado on the stable and dry side of the high. The heart of the monsoon plume has pushed to our west. It was pretty active over eastern AZ, eastern UT, and western NV.

At 7:30pm there was nothing significant on radar in our area.

My forecast…

Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be few and far between. We’ll continue playing the rain lottery. * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning. — ***Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be few and far between. We’ll continue playing the rain lottery.***
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.07” of rain in town and up to 0.30” in our mountains. This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss. A single cell can drop a bunch of rain and small hail over a small area in a hurry.

Euro ensemble 10-day precip through 21 Aug at 6am – It shows Pagosa Springs getting 1.41” and our mountains getting up to 2.00”. The GFS ensemble says 1.65” and the NBM data is not available this evening. This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss and fall mostly in the afternoons and evenings. Precip amounts with summer showers and thunderstorms vary considerably.

Light at the end of the tunnel - The Climate Prediction Center 6-10 day precip outlook for 16-20 Aug indicates a good chance for us to get above average precip. — *Light at the end of the tunnel! – The Climate Prediction Center 6-10 day precip outlook for 16-20 Aug indicates a good chance for us to get above average precip.*

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
81	92 / 1934	45	28 / 1956

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

My next forecast post will be on Friday morning.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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