Active again this afternoon…

There was some crazy lightning yesterday! – Pic taken 8/7/2022 around 1:45pm looking northwest towards Williams Creek Reservoir.

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Monday – 8 Aug 2022 – 9:45am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 79. The low this morning was 52. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 35%. Winds at the airfield hit 28mph yesterday.

Precip summary… There were some big rain lottery winners yesterday. Carol Ann Peterson reported 1.2” in an hour and ended up with 1.36” total in Alpine Lakes Ranch Elk Ridge. Sean Poore on CR 359 in Coyote Park also reported over an inch of rain. Thanks for your reports!

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall reports range from zero to 0.68”. Amanda in the lower Navajo River valley was the rain lottery winner – again! Val in Lost Valley also did good with 0.65”.*

Forecast discussion…

The upper level high continues to wobble around the Four Corners area. The high is currently to our west.

Today, Cape, a measure instability, is well past the threshold for us to get showers and thunderstorms. Precipitable water, the amount of water potentially available for precip, will peak just under an inch so there is plenty of moisture to work with.

Today’s storms will be moving a little faster from the north-northeast towards the south-southwest.

Over the next few days, the high is expected to move north. By the middle of the week, northeast flow around the high will weaken the monsoon moisture plume and push it to our west resulting in fewer showers and thunderstorms.

Monsoon storms are hit and miss and can produce quick bursts of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lighting.

Water vapor analysis this morning: The high is to our west. Clockwise flow around the high, indicated by the red arrows, is northerly over us. The drier air to the north is getting pushed our direction. We’re still on the edge of the monsoon moisture today but starting tomorrow we’ll see less shower and thunderstorm activity.

At 9:00am there was nothing significant on radar in our region.

My forecast…

Our best chance for showers and thunderstorms is today from 3pm to 7pm but they could linger into the evening. For the rest of the week we’ll continue playing the rain lottery. * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning. — ***Our best chance for showers and thunderstorms is today from 3pm to 7pm but they could linger into the evening. For the rest of the week we’ll continue to play the rain lottery.***
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

HRRR forecast radar from noon to midnight today – The first couple of showers develop over the mountains around 1pm and then move towards the southeast. This model shows our best chance for storms 4-7pm.

NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.14” of rain in town and up to 0.75” in our mountains. This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss. A single cell can drop a bunch of rain and small hail over a small area in a hurry.

NBM 10-day precip through 18 Aug at 6am – The blended model shows Pagosa Springs getting 1.16” and our mountains getting up to 2.5”. The GFS ensemble says 1.54” and the Euro ensemble has 0.87”. The forecast model trend is for less precip. This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss and fall mostly in the afternoons and evenings. Precip amounts with summer showers and thunderstorms vary considerably. — NBM 10-day precip through 18 Aug at 6am – The blended model shows Pagosa Springs getting 1.16” and our mountains getting up to 2.5”. The GFS ensemble says 1.54” and the Euro ensemble has 0.87”. The forecast model trend is for less precip. *This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss and fall mostly in the afternoons and evenings. Precip amounts with summer showers and thunderstorms vary considerably.*

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
82	90 / 1969	45	29 / 1956

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

My next forecast post will be on Wednesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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