The plume returns after vacationing in Vegas!

Curious

Curious, my pet tortoise of 54 years, enjoys her new home at our youngest daughter’s courtyard in Las Vegas. Thanks to the heart of the moisture plume shifting over Arizona and Nevada last week, we saw scattered storms every day…perfect timing for the sod we planted for the new tortoise pen! Las Vegas is having their best monsoon season in over 10 years. This has been a wonderful summer for the entire SW.

Sunday – 14 August 2022 – 1:30pm update.

The past…

The high on Saturday at Stevens Field was 83 and the low this morning was 53. Our humidity bottomed out at 23%. Rainfall was pretty wimpy, but one COCORAHS reporter south of town recorded 0.18 inches.

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COCORAHS rainfall reports for the Pagosa Springs area over the past 24 hours. Most of the heavier rain has been staying in AZ and Nevada this past week.

Forecast discussion…

My wife and I spent the past week in Las Vegas, dropping off my pet tortoise of 54 years (Curious), at her new home in the courtyard of our youngest daughter’s home. What was surprising was how humid it was in Vegas…good for rain, but it felt like I was coated in Saran Wrap when walking outside! Curious thought she was back in south Texas with high summer dew points, (where she has spent most of her life) instead of the desert. The monsoon plume has been parked over Arizona and Nevada over the past week and we ended up with more rain out there than what I found in my rain gauge when we returned home last night.

While the monsoon never went away, the main moisture flow moved west as high pressure built over Colorado. That will change this week as the high slowly moves east, ushering in rich moisture in the mid-levels and surface, and increasing our precipitable water values to over an inch. Look for rain odds to start increasing on Monday, then really ramping up from Tuesday through the rest of the week.

For all of you visiting our beautiful area, please be careful when you go out on hikes, especially in the afternoons. Totally clear mornings can quickly turn into stormy afternoons with 20-30 degree drop in temps, heavy rain, hail, lightning and gusty winds over 40mph! Make sure you pack rain gear because being wet when temps drop to the 50’s can be more than uncomfortable…it can be dangerous.

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The monsoon plume will be drifting our direction this week as the ridge of high pressure over us moves east. A Gulf of Mexico Low is moving through far south Texas today and will send some of its moisture into Mexico, which might add to our plume on Tuesday.
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The latest NWS 3-day rainfall forecast is predicting 0.8 inches for Pagosa Springs, 0.8 inch for Chama and 1.1 inches for the mountains.
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The latest EURO model run looks bullish for our monsoon to ramp up over the next 7 days!

My forecast…

Pagosa 5 day forecast 8 14 22 b
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

Pagosa Springs historical data for Aug 14th

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8089/ 19404532 / 1950

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

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