Not as wet this week…

Low stratus clouds in the Piedra River canyon. The river is cranking!… Pic taken 7/30/2022

Sunday – 31 Jul 2022 – 9:15am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 74. The low this morning was 54. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 44%. Winds at the airfield hit 9mph yesterday. We hit 20mph in O’Neal Park.

Precip summary… Most of the county got another good soaking. Check out these 24-hour rainfall totals…

*CoCoRaHS reports range from 0.31” to 1.10”*

Forecast discussion…

The upper level high continues to wobble around the Four Corners area. The heart of the monsoon moisture plume has been over heads, but it will weaken over the next few days.

Tuesday and Wednesday, Cape, a measure of instability, and precipitable water both decrease which will result in fewer afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Later in the week the monsoon plume will shift our direction again, so we’ll see an increase of afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity.

Storms will continue to be hit and miss and can produce quick bursts of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lighting.

Water vapor satellite this morning: The upper level high is currently over west-central NM and continues to wobble around the Four Corners area. The monsoon plume continues to wrap clockwise around the high and into our area.

At 9am there was nothing on radar in our region.

My forecast…

We'll see fewer showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday. * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning. — ***We’ll see fewer showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday.***
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.4” of rain in town and up to 1.60” in our mountains. This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss. A single cell can drop a bunch of rain and small hail over a small area in a hurry.

NBM 10-day precip through 10 Aug at 6am – The blended model shows Pagosa Springs getting 2.63” and our mountains getting up to 4.50”. The Euro ensemble shows 1.84” and the GFS ensemble shows 2.15”. This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss and fall mostly in the afternoons and evenings. Precip amounts with summer showers and thunderstorms vary considerably.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
82	94 / 1940	47	34 / 1913

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

My next post will be tomorrow morning. I will also do the July summary and August outlook tomorrow. – Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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