Cloudy and cool, with a chance for more rain.

Seattle

Our weather today reminds me of summer weather in Seattle, WA. This photo was taken on a sailing trip in Elliot Bay in 2016. Photo by Mark Langford

Saturday – 30 Jul 2022 – 9:45am update.

The past…

The high on Wednesday at Stevens Field was 70 and the low this morning was 55. Our highest wind gust was only 16mph and our humidity bottomed out at only 55%. Rainfall was less than forecast, but most of us at least recorded some precipitation.

Screenshot 2022 07 30 085307
COCORAHS rainfall reports for the Pagosa Springs area over the past 24 hours. Most of the heavier rain stayed to our SE, with Chama, NM reporting almost an inch of rain.
Screenshot 2022 07 30 085412
It’s been a great week of rain with 6-day rainfall totals for most of us over 2 inches!
Screenshot 2022 07 30 085505
Remote sensor rainfall reports from the past 24 hours show Pagosa Springs being on the lower end of the rain totals yesterday.

Forecast discussion…

A cool and cloudy day yesterday felt nice but may have put a damper on our afternoon storms and showers as we only saw light rain totals for most of our area. With clouds around this morning, and almost the same conditions as yesterday, I’m expecting lighter rain totals again today, but there is always the chance for some heavy downpours in our current moist conditions. The Weather Prediction Center has placed Archuleta County in the Yellow Zone (10-20% chance) for excessive rainfall today. 

As has been the case all week, we continue to be sandwiched between a ridge to our north and one over Texas. Moisture in the mid-levels and surface is flowing into our area, increasing our precipitable water values to over an inch (monsoon conditions).

The Grand Junction radar is down for maintenance until August 2nd. Our only coverage until then will be from Albuquerque, NM, which only goes to HWY 160 and Alamosa’s which can only be seen using the MMRS radar viewer and covers some areas east of town, including Wolf Creek Pass. Here is the link to the MMRS site: Op Product Viewer (noaa.gov)

For all of you visiting our beautiful area, please be careful when you go out on hikes, especially in the afternoons. Totally clear mornings can quickly turn into stormy afternoons with 20-30 degree drop in temps, heavy rain, hail, lightning and gusty winds over 40mph! Make sure you pack rain gear because being wet when temps drop to the 50’s can be more than uncomfortable…it can be dangerous.

Screenshot 2022 07 30 092441
We continue to find ourselves in a moist surface and mid-level scenario, keeping our monsoon alive.
Screenshot 2022 07 30 090802
We are in the Yellow Zone (10-20% chance) for excessive rainfall today. 
Screenshot 2022 07 30 085223
The latest NWS 3-day rainfall forecast how lowered their rainfall totals for our area but is still predicting 0.7 inches for Pagosa Springs, 1 inch for Chama and 1.3 inches for the mountains.
Screenshot 2022 07 30 085605
The latest 8-14 day Precipitation Outlook continues to look bullish for our monsoon to continue into August.

My forecast…

Pagosa 5 day forecast 7 30 22 1
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

Pagosa Springs historical data for July 30th

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8393/ 19474735 / 1950

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

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