Active today, less active tomorrow & Wednesday…

Fog in the valley of O’Neal Park this morning… Pic taken 8/1/2022

Fog in the valley of O’Neal Park this morning… Pic taken 8/1/2022

Monday – 1 Aug 2022 – 9:30am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 74. The low this morning was 53. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 49%. Winds at the airfield hit 13mph yesterday.

Precip summary… Most of us just got a few raindrops but there was definitely a rain lottery winner.

CoCoRaHS reports range from a trace to 0.91”. The rain lottery winner was the Chromo area!
CoCoRaHS reports range from a trace to 0.91”. The rain lottery winner was the Chromo area!

Forecast discussion…

The upper level high continues to wobble around the Four Corners area. The monsoon moisture plume will weaken over the next few days.

Today will still be active. Cape, a measure of instability, and precipitable water are still pretty high.

Tuesday and Wednesday, the upper level high will shift to our southwest into north-central AZ and reduce our monsoon moisture feed. Both Cape and precipitable water will decrease which will result in fewer afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Later in the week the monsoon plume will shift our direction again, so we’ll see an increase of afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity.

Storms will continue to be hit and miss and can produce quick bursts of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lighting.

Water vapor satellite this morning: The upper level high is currently over central NM and continues to wobble around the Four Corners area.  The monsoon plume continues to wrap clockwise around the high and into our area. The high will shift over AZ tomorrow and Wednesday, and briefly cut-off our monsoon moisture.
Water vapor satellite this morning: The upper level high is currently over central NM and continues to wobble around the Four Corners area.  The monsoon plume continues to wrap clockwise around the high and into our area. The high will shift over AZ tomorrow and Wednesday, and briefly cut-off our monsoon moisture.

At 9am there was nothing on radar in our region.

My forecast…

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
Tuesday and Wednesday will be less active.

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.18” of rain in town and up to 1” in our mountains.  This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss. A single cell can drop a bunch of rain and small hail over a small area in a hurry.
NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.18” of rain in town and up to 1” in our mountains.  This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss. A single cell can drop a bunch of rain and small hail over a small area in a hurry.
Euro ensemble 10-day precip through 11 Aug at 6am – It shows Pagosa Springs getting 1.66” and our mountains getting up to 2.50”. The last couple of model runs have trended down with precip amounts. This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss and fall mostly in the afternoons and evenings. Precip amounts with summer showers and thunderstorms vary considerably.
Euro ensemble 10-day precip through 11 Aug at 6am – It shows Pagosa Springs getting 1.66” and our mountains getting up to 2.50”. The last couple of model runs have trended down with precip amounts. This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss and fall mostly in the afternoons and evenings. Precip amounts with summer showers and thunderstorms vary considerably.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8290 / 19934737 / 1958

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

My next post will be Wednesday morning.  I will also do the July summary and August outlook later today.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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