Wet and cooler this week!…

This picture was taken at 1pm today.  At 2pm in the same spot, we heard the first big BOOM of thunder!… Pic taken 7/23/2022

This picture was taken at 1pm today.  At 2pm in the same spot, we heard the first big BOOM of thunder!… Pic taken 7/23/2022

Saturday – 23 Jul 2022 – 5:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 87 and today it was 89 – just 3 degrees from the record high of 92. The low this morning was 54. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 17% and today it was 16%. Winds at the airfield hit 28mph yesterday and so far today it has peaked at 23mph.

Precip summary… Thursday afternoon one good cell moved through western Archuleta County and dropped up to 0.6” of rain near Yellowjacket Pass while most of the rest of the county stayed dry.

Yesterday a few spots got a few raindrops, but most of the county was dry again. Chama was the big rain lottery winner yesterday with 0.88”!  At one point the hourly rain rate was 3” per hour – very heavy rain.  It’s amazing how these summertime monsoon storms can drop a bunch of rain very quickly over a small area!  Chama’s temperature was 85 before the big shower hit and then dropped quickly to 59 – a 26 degree drop!

At I type at 4:30pm scattered rainshowers are moving through the county.  Let’s hope a couple of folks hit the rain lottery this afternoon!

Forecast discussion…

The upper level high is finally shifting to our east which will funnel the heart of the monsoon moisture plume through NM and into our area – yay!  Temps will be 5-10 degrees cooler this week and most of the county will get some rain.

With deeper monsoon moisture, the first few showers and thunderstorms could develop as early as 9am, especially over the mountains, and last until around midnight. In the valley storms are most likely to occur between noon and 8pm.

Storms will continue to be hit and miss and can produce quick bursts of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lighting.

Infrared satellite loop this afternoon: Scattered showers and a couple of thunderstorms developed this afternoon over parts of the county and were moving towards the east-northeast.
Infrared satellite loop this afternoon: Scattered showers and a couple of thunderstorms developed this afternoon over parts of the county and were moving towards the east-northeast.
Radar this afternoon: It’s more active than I expected today.  That’s a good sign for things to come!  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to move towards the east-northeast through this evening.
Radar this afternoon: It’s more active than I expected today.  That’s a good sign for things to come!  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to move towards the east-northeast through this evening.

My forecast…

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
NWS 66-hour precip shows 0.9” of rain in town and up to 2.50” in our mountains.  This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss. A single cell can drop a bunch of rain and small hail over a small area in a hurry.
NWS 66-hour precip shows 0.9” of rain in town and up to 2.50” in our mountains – just what we want to see during monsoon season!  This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss. A single cell can drop a bunch of rain and small hail over a small area in a hurry.
NBM 10-day precip through 2 Aug at midnight – The blended model shows Pagosa Springs getting 2.94” and our mountains getting up to 4.50”. The Euro ensemble shows 2.37” and the GFS ensemble shows 2.92”. The forecast models continue to trend up with precip amounts – yay! This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss and fall mostly in the afternoons and evenings. Precip amounts with summer showers and thunderstorms vary considerably.
NBM 10-day precip through 2 Aug at midnight – The blended model shows Pagosa Springs getting 2.94” and our mountains getting up to 4.50”. The Euro ensemble shows 2.37” and the GFS ensemble shows 2.92”. The forecast models continue to trend up with precip amounts – yay! This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss and fall mostly in the afternoons and evenings. Precip amounts with summer showers and thunderstorms vary considerably.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8292 / 19404631 / 1973

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Mark will take over tomorrow. Please do your rain dances!

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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