In the plume again…I just can’t wait to get in the plume again!

Lightning

I captured this bolt of lightning last week in our neighborhood…hopefully we will see a plethora of storms over the next week with more great photo ops. Photo by Mark Langford

Sunday – 24 Jul 2022 – 8:45am update.

The past…

The high on Saturday at Stevens Field was 89 and the low this morning was 58. Downtown sensors hit the low 90’s! The lowest humidity reading yesterday was 16 percent and the highest wind gust was 23 mph. Most of us saw only light rainfall totals.

Screenshot 2022 07 24 075953
The golf course area won the rain lottery yesterday, with a tenth of an inch recorded. Tomorrow’s reports should look a lot better if the latest forecast verifies! Thanks to all of the COCORAHS members out there who post their daily rainfall and snowfall reports.

Forecast discussion…

Thanks to an incoming trough in the Pacific NW that has pushed high pressure to our east, moisture in the mid-levels and surface will be increasing today, along with the chances for afternoon thunderstorms. This trend will continue, with decent odds for monsoonal rain continuing all week. High temps will be trending down starting today, taking us back to mid 70’s and low 80’s instead of mid-upper 80’s and low 90’s as we see more clouds and evaporative cooling from nearby storms. Even though we have great odds this week for seeing rain every day, don’t forget that summer storms are convective in nature so there will be days that some of us get a good downpour and others see very little rain.

For all of you visiting our beautiful area, please be careful when you go out on hikes, especially in the afternoons. Totally clear mornings can quickly turn into stormy afternoons with 20-30 degree drop in temps, heavy rain, hail, lightning and gusty winds over 40mph! Make sure you pack rain gear because being wet when temps drop to the 50’s can be more than uncomfortable…it can be dangerous.

Screenshot 2022 07 24 074633
Thanks to an incoming trough from the Pacific NW and high pressure being nudged to our east, mid-level winds will be drawing in more moisture from the SW all week long.
Screenshot 2022 07 24 075758
Precipitable water will be rising to over an inch by today, indicating that moisture is moving back into our area and storms will be on the increase.
wpc excessive rainfall day1.us sw
We are in the Yellow Zone (10-20% chance) for excessive rainfall today.
Screenshot 2022 07 24 075550
The latest NWS 3-day rainfall forecast is predicting almost an inch for Pagosa Springs, over an in for Chama and 1.4 inches for the mountains.

My forecast…

Pagosa 5 day forecast 7 24 22b 1
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

Pagosa Springs historical data for July 24th

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8292/ 19404735 / 1973

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

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