Near record warmth through Saturday – wetter pattern starting Sunday…

Thunderstorms blew up quickly yesterday in the high country… Pics taken 7/20/2022

Thursday – 21 Jul 2022 – 11:00am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 87. The low this morning was 56. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 20%. Winds at the airfield hit 20mph yesterday.

Precip summary… Showers Tuesday afternoon and evening stayed mostly over the northeast part of the county. Showers yesterday afternoon were more widespread but amounts were light.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall reports from yesterday range from zero to 0.26”. The rain lottery winner was a weather sensor northeast of town with 0.37”. The green line outlines the northeast part of the county that got rain Tuesday afternoon and evening.

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall reports from this morning range from 0.02” to 0.35”.*

Forecast discussion…

The upper level high continues to wobble around the Four Corners area. This morning the high is to our southwest which puts us on the more stable, more dry, less fun side of the high.

We will be stuck on the less fun side of the high through Saturday, but we’ve still got a shot at spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Temps will also be above average through Saturday. The “official” high temps at Stevens Field will flirt with the records and the warm spots will hit the mid-90s.

Starting Sunday, the high will shift to our east and the monsoon plume will move back into our area resulting in increased shower and thunderstorm activity and slightly cooler temps – yay!

Continue to expect typical monsoon summer days here in Pagosa Country…

– Wake up to lots of blue sky

– 10-noon clouds develop over the mountains

– 11am-1pm first few storms develop over the mountains

– 1pm-7pm scattered storms in parts of the county

– After 7pm most storms dissipate, clouds clear, and we have a pretty sunset

Storms will be hit and miss and can produce quick bursts of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lighting.

Water vapor satellite analysis this morning: The upper level high is to our southwest which puts us on the “more stable, less moist, less fun” side of the high. The green arrows indicate flow around the high. This pattern will persist through Saturday.

Radar this morning doesn’t indicate anything in our area.

My forecast…

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning. ** Record highs the next three days are 93, 91, and 92. The “official” high temps at Stevens Field will cut those close and the warm spots will exceed those records. ** — * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

** Record highs the next three days are 93, 91, and 92. The “official” high temps at Stevens Field will cut those close and the warm spots will exceed those records. **

NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.05” of rain in town and up to 0.30” in our mountains. This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss. A single cell can drop a bunch of rain and small hail over a small area in a hurry.

NBM 10-day precip through 1 Aug at 6am – The blended model shows Pagosa Springs getting 2.22” and our mountains getting up to 3.50”. The Euro ensemble shows 1.47” and the GFS ensemble shows 1.74”. All models are trending up with precip amounts – yay! This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss and fall mostly in the afternoons and evenings. Precip amounts with summer showers and thunderstorms vary considerably.

*The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day and 8-14 day precip outlooks both show a chance for us to get above average precip.*

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
83	93 / 1945	46	35 / 1958

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

My next post will be Saturday afternoon. We’re trail ambassadors most Saturday mornings at the Piedra Trailhead. Please say hi if you see us! – Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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