Spotty pm showers & thunderstorms and warm through Friday…

Cumulus clouds developed yesterday afternoon but didn’t have enough energy to grow into showers and thunderstorms… Pic taken 7/18/2022

Tuesday – 19 Jul 2022 – 11:00am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 89. The low this morning was 55. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 18%. Winds at the airfield hit 24mph yesterday.

Precip summary… Showers yesterday were on the other side of The Divide. CoCoRaHS reports this morning all show zero precip in Archuleta County. Sunday afternoon and Sunday night a little rain fell over much of the county.

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall reports from yesterday, precip that fell Sunday afternoon and Sunday night, range from 0.01” to 0.12”.*

Forecast discussion…

The upper level high continues to wobble around the Four Corners area. This morning the high is to our southwest which puts us on the more stable and more dry east side of the high.

Now it looks like we will be stuck on the less fun side of the high through Friday or Saturday

So our shower and thunderstorm chances will be lower today through Friday, but they won’t go completely away. We’re still playing the rain lottery!

Temps will also be above average through Friday. The warm spots will hit the mid-90s.

This weekend, the high will shift to our east and the monsoon plume will move back into our area resulting in increased shower and thunderstorm activity and slightly cooler temps – yay!

Continue to expect typical monsoon summer days here in Pagosa Country…

– Wake up to lots of blue sky

– 10-noon clouds develop over the mountains

– 11am-1pm first few storms develop over the mountains

– 1pm-7pm scattered storms in parts of the county

– After 7pm most storms dissipate, clouds clear, and we have a pretty sunset

Storms will be hit and miss and can produce quick bursts of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lighting.

Water vapor satellite analysis this morning: The upper level high is to our southwest which puts us on the “more stable, less moist” and less fun side of the high. This pattern will persist through Friday. — Water vapor satellite analysis this morning: The upper level high is to our southwest which puts us on the “more stable, less moist” and less fun side of the high. The red arrows indicate flow around the high. Note the dry air undercutting our moisture plume. This pattern will persist through Friday.

Radar this morning doesn’t indicate anything in our area.

My forecast…

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.02” of rain in town and a little bullseye of 0.70” in our mountains. This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss. A single cell can drop a bunch of rain and small hail over a small area in a hurry.

NBM 10-day precip through 29 Jul at 6am – The blended model shows Pagosa Springs getting 1.39” and our mountains getting up to 2.25”. The Euro ensemble shows 0.85” and the GFS ensemble shows 1.17”. This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss and fall mostly in the afternoons and evenings. Precip amounts with summer showers and thunderstorms vary considerably.

Euro ensemble CAPE and PWAT – CAPE is a measure of instability and PWAT is a measure of the amount of water potentially available for precipitation. These are two key ingredients for summertime monsoon storms.

For Capes – chart on top – I want to see values above 200. I added the red line for clarity. Capes are expected to be around 150 through Friday which is marginal for storms to develop in our area. To me this means storms will be “isolated” or “spotty” and mostly over the mountains.

For PWATs – chart on bottom – I want to see values above 0.8. I added the red line for clarity. PWATs are expected to be around 0.75 through Friday and then start increasing Saturday or Sunday. Like Capes above, these PWATs mean our moisture is marginal for storms. Though there is less moisture to work with, a single cell can still drop a surprising amount of rain over a small area.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
83	96 / 1989	46	35 / 1956

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

My next post will be on Thursday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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