Cumulus clouds developed yesterday afternoon but didn’t have enough energy to grow into showers and thunderstorms… Pic taken 7/18/2022
Tuesday – 19 Jul 2022 – 11:00am
At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 89. The low this morning was 55. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 18%. Winds at the airfield hit 24mph yesterday.
Precip summary… Showers yesterday were on the other side of The Divide. CoCoRaHS reports this morning all show zero precip in Archuleta County. Sunday afternoon and Sunday night a little rain fell over much of the county.
The upper level high continues to wobble around the Four Corners area. This morning the high is to our southwest which puts us on the more stable and more dry east side of the high.
Now it looks like we will be stuck on the less fun side of the high through Friday or Saturday
So our shower and thunderstorm chances will be lower today through Friday, but they won’t go completely away. We’re still playing the rain lottery!
Temps will also be above average through Friday. The warm spots will hit the mid-90s.
This weekend, the high will shift to our east and the monsoon plume will move back into our area resulting in increased shower and thunderstorm activity and slightly cooler temps – yay!
Continue to expect typical monsoon summer days here in Pagosa Country…
– Wake up to lots of blue sky
– 10-noon clouds develop over the mountains
– 11am-1pm first few storms develop over the mountains
– 1pm-7pm scattered storms in parts of the county
– After 7pm most storms dissipate, clouds clear, and we have a pretty sunset
Storms will be hit and miss and can produce quick bursts of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lighting.
Radar this morning doesn’t indicate anything in our area.
For Capes – chart on top – I want to see values above 200. I added the red line for clarity. Capes are expected to be around 150 through Friday which is marginal for storms to develop in our area. To me this means storms will be “isolated” or “spotty” and mostly over the mountains.
For PWATs – chart on bottom – I want to see values above 0.8. I added the red line for clarity. PWATs are expected to be around 0.75 through Friday and then start increasing Saturday or Sunday. Like Capes above, these PWATs mean our moisture is marginal for storms. Though there is less moisture to work with, a single cell can still drop a surprising amount of rain over a small area.
Pagosa Springs historical data
|Average High||Record High / Year||Average Low||Record Low / Year|
|83||96 / 1989||46||35 / 1956|
Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.
My next post will be on Thursday.