Fewer afternoon storms and warm through Tuesday…

This beautiful thunderstorm popped up Friday evening over the middle Piedra River area… Pic taken 7/15/2022

Sunday – 17 Jul 2022 – 1:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 88. The low this morning was 54. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 19%. Winds at the airfield hit 23mph yesterday.

Precip summary… There was very little rain on Friday but yesterday quite a bit of the county got at least a few drops.

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall reports range from a trace to 0.22”.*

Forecast discussion…

The upper level high continues to wobble around the Four Corners area. Monday and Tuesday the high could be over our heads which will inhibit shower and thunderstorm development.

The main part of the monsoon plume has pushed to our west but there is residual moisture trying to hang on. Moisture will decrease through Tuesday which will also result in less shower and thunderstorm activity.

So our shower and thunderstorm chances will be lower today through Tuesday, but they won’t go completely away. We’re still playing the rain lottery!

Temps will also be above average through Tuesday. The warm spots could hit the mid-90s, especially on Tuesday.

Later in the week, the high will shift to our east and the monsoon plume will move back into our area resulting in increased shower and thunderstorm activity – yay!

Continue to expect typical monsoon summer days here in Pagosa Country…

– Wake up to lots of blue sky

– 10-noon clouds develop over the mountains

– 11am-1pm first few storms develop over the mountains

– 1pm-7pm scattered storms occur across the county

– After 7pm most storms dissipate, clouds clear, and we have a pretty sunset

Storms will be hit and miss and can produce quick bursts of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lighting.

Water vapor satellite analysis this afternoon: The main monsoon plume has been pushed to our west but there is a band of residual moisture that will help fuel spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

*Radar this afternoon at 1pm: The first few showers have popped up over the mountains and are moving slowly towards the north.*

My forecast…

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.08” of rain in town and up to 0.60” in our mountains. This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss. A single cell can drop a bunch of rain and small hail over a small area in a hurry.

NBM 10-day precip through 27 Jul at 6am – The blended model shows Pagosa Springs getting 1.19” and our mountains getting up to 2.00”. This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss and fall mostly in the afternoons and evenings. A single slow moving cell can drop a quick half inch of rain or more in a small area. Precip amounts with summer showers and thunderstorms vary considerably.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
83	91 / 1910	46	35 / 1907

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

My next post will be on Tuesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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