Scattered afternoon showers & thunderstorms…

It’s amazing how quickly the clouds build over the mountains! At 9:30am there were no clouds. We heard the first crack of thunder from that cumulonimbus cloud around 11:45am… Pics taken 7/11/2022

It’s amazing how quickly the clouds build over the mountains! At 9:30am there were no clouds. We heard the first crack of thunder from that cumulonimbus cloud around 11:45am… Pics taken 7/11/2022

Wednesday – 13 Jul 2022 – 8:30am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 80. The low this morning was 51. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 25%. Winds at the airfield hit 10mph yesterday.

Precip summary… The storms missed most of us yesterday.  The rain lottery winners were down towards Chromo – again!

CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall reports range from 0” to 0.10”.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall reports range from 0” to 0.10”.

Forecast discussion…

The upper level high continues to wobble around the Four Corners area.  Monsoon moisture is being cycled clockwise – anti-cyclonically to weather geeks – around the high. Precipitable water, a measure of the amount of water potentially available in the atmosphere, and Cape, the amount of fuel available for developing a thunderstorm, will stay higher than our thresholds for afternoon storms.

So what does this mean? It means typical monsoon summer days here in Pagosa Country…

– Wake up to lots of blue sky

– 10-noon clouds develop over the mountains

– 11am-1pm first few storms develop over the mountains

– 1pm-7pm scattered storms occur across the county

– After 7pm most storms dissipate, clouds clear, and we have a pretty sunset

Storms will be hit and miss and can produce quick bursts of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lighting.

Water vapor satellite loop from noon to midnight yesterday: Thunderstorms blew up quickly over the mountains around noon and moved south.
Water vapor satellite loop from noon to midnight yesterday: Thunderstorms blew up quickly over the mountains around noon and moved south. 

Radar this morning doesn’t have anything in our region.

My forecast…

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.40” of rain in town and up to 1” in our mountains.  This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss. A single cell can drop a bunch of rain and small hail over a small area in a hurry.
NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.40” of rain in town and up to 1” in our mountains.  This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss. A single cell can drop a bunch of rain and small hail over a small area in a hurry.
Euro ensemble 10-day precip through 23 Jul at 6pm – This ensemble model shows Pagosa Springs getting 1.18” and our mountains getting up to 2.25”. This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss and fall mostly in the afternoons and evenings. A single slow moving cell can drop a quick half inch of rain or more in a small area.  Precip amounts with summer showers and thunderstorms vary considerably!
Euro ensemble 10-day precip through 23 Jul at 6pm – This ensemble model shows Pagosa Springs getting 1.18” and our mountains getting up to 2.25”. This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss and fall mostly in the afternoons and evenings. A single slow moving cell can drop a quick half inch of rain or more in a small area.  Precip amounts with summer showers and thunderstorms vary considerably!

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8398 / 19394530 / 1941

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

I’ll try to get another post out tomorrow afternoon, otherwise it will be Friday morning.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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2 Responses

    1. The clouds are so spectacular and your knowledge would be so kind to share. I love your app, comments on FB, photos and such. Have lived here on and off since ‘98 and miss the closeness of the good ol’ days.
      Was stationed at Ramstein for three years in the late 60’s and at Andrews AFB. The AF was a first marriage venture.
      Army now…oh well…

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