More of the same…

Love stumbling onto these beautiful scenes in the high country!… Pic taken 7/14/2022

Love stumbling onto these beautiful scenes in the high country!… Pic taken 7/14/2022

Friday – 15 Jul 2022 – 8:30am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 87. The low this morning was 58. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 19%. Winds at the airfield hit 21mph yesterday.

Precip summary… Storms have been more miss lately than hit but a few areas have won the rain lottery.  Wednesday afternoon we drove through the only shower in the county along 160 just west of uptown.  Then yesterday a couple of good cells moved mostly along 160 again and dropped decent rain.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall reports range from zero to 0.56”. The area outlined got decent precip yesterday.  The highest report was 0.98” in the Vista area!  There were a few other reports in the 0.50” to 0.75” range just north of the highway.  This is another clear example of how spotty these summertime showers can be. While many of us were dry yesterday, a few folks definitely won the rain lottery!
CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall reports range from zero to 0.56”. The area outlined got decent precip yesterday.  The highest report was 0.98” in the Vista area!  There were a few other reports in the 0.50” to 0.75” range just north of the highway.  This is another clear example of how spotty these summertime showers can be. While many of us were dry yesterday, a few folks definitely won the rain lottery!

Forecast discussion…

The upper level high continues to wobble around the Four Corners area.  Monsoon moisture is being cycled clockwise – anti-cyclonically to weather geeks – around the high. The last couple of days the high has been to our west.  That puts under the more stable side with less activity.  I expect this trend to continue through the weekend.

So what does this mean? It means typical monsoon summer days here in Pagosa Country…

– Wake up to lots of blue sky

– 10-noon clouds develop over the mountains

– 11am-1pm first few storms develop over the mountains

– 1pm-7pm scattered storms occur across the county

– After 7pm most storms dissipate, clouds clear, and we have a pretty sunset

Storms will be hit and miss and can produce quick bursts of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lighting.

Water vapor satellite analysis this morning: The high and its associated ridge, are just to our west.  This puts us under light upper level northwest flow that is more stable and less moist than the southerly flow on the west side of the high/ridge.
Water vapor satellite analysis this morning: The high and its associated ridge, are just to our west.  This puts us under light upper level northwest flow that is more stable and less moist than the southerly flow on the west side of the high/ridge.
Radar this morning: There are a couple of light showers in the area this morning. Movement is pretty erratic but mostly very slow towards the north.
Radar this morning: There are a couple of light showers in the area this morning. Movement is pretty erratic but mostly very slow towards the north.

My forecast…

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.10” of rain in town and up to 0.75” in our mountains.  This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss. A single cell can drop a bunch of rain and small hail over a small area in a hurry.
NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.10” of rain in town and up to 0.75” in our mountains.  This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss. A single cell can drop a bunch of rain and small hail over a small area in a hurry.
Euro ensemble 10-day precip through 25 Jul at 6pm – This ensemble model shows Pagosa Springs getting 0.96” and our mountains getting up to 2.00”. This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss and fall mostly in the afternoons and evenings. A single slow moving cell can drop a quick half inch of rain or more in a small area.  Precip amounts with summer showers and thunderstorms vary considerably.
Euro ensemble 10-day precip through 25 Jul at 6pm – This ensemble model shows Pagosa Springs getting 0.96” and our mountains getting up to 2.00”. This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss and fall mostly in the afternoons and evenings. A single slow moving cell can drop a quick half inch of rain or more in a small area.  Precip amounts with summer showers and thunderstorms vary considerably.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8494 / 19484633 / 1962

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

My next post will be Sunday morning.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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