Increase in monsoon storms today & tomorrow…

Yesterday – dark skies to the east and sun to the west… Pics taken 7/10/2022

Monday – 11 Jul 2022 – 9:45am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 87. The low this morning was 53. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 17%. Winds at the airfield hit 27mph yesterday.

Precip summary… The eastern part of the county got some rain while the western part stayed dry.

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall reports range from 0” to 0.15” down towards Chromo. A couple of the personal weather sensors indicated up to 0.25” fell in a few eastern parts of the county.*

Forecast discussion…

The upper level high continues to wobble around the Four Corners area. Monsoon moisture is being pushed into our area from the south. Precipitable water, a measure of the amount of water potentially available in the atmosphere, and Cape, the amount of fuel available for developing a thunderstorm, will stay higher than our thresholds for afternoon storms.

So what does this mean? It means typical monsoon summer days here in Pagosa Country…

– Wake up to lots of blue sky

– 10-noon clouds develop over the mountains

– 11am-1pm first few storms develop over the mountains

– 1pm-7pm scattered storms occur across the county

– After 7pm most storms dissipate, clouds clear, and we have a pretty sunset

Storms will be hit and miss and can produce quick bursts of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lighting.

Water vapor satellite this morning: The upper level high is wobbling around the Four Corners area. The monsoon moisture plume continues to funnel around the high and into our area. As the sun warms things up during the day, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop all across the moisture plume.

Radar this morning doesn’t have anything in our region.

My forecast…

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

HRRR forecast radar loop from 10am this morning to midnight tomorrow – The first few isolated storms pop up between noon and 1pm, mostly over the mountains, and then become more widespread to 7pm. They taper off overnight and then ramp again tomorrow afternoon. Today’s storms are nearly stationary with a slight west to east movement. Tomorrow’s storms will move from the northwest or north towards the southeast or south.

NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.28” of rain in town and up to 1.75” in our mountains. This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss. A single cell can drop a bunch of rain and small hail over a small area in a hurry.

NBM 10-day precip through 21 Jul at 6pm – The blended model shows Pagosa Springs getting 1.94” and our mountains getting up to 2.75”. This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss and fall mostly in the afternoons and evenings. A single slow moving cell can drop a quick half inch of rain or more in a small area. Precip amounts with summer showers and thunderstorms vary considerably!

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
83	93 / 1958	44	25 / 1915

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

I’ll try to get another post out tomorrow afternoon, otherwise it will be Wednesday morning.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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