Active weather this week…

Weather pup and trail ambassador Tommy keeping an eye on the Piedra trailhead… Pic taken 7/9/2022

Sunday – 10 Jul 2022 – 3:45pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high so far today has been 86 and yesterday it was 88. The low this morning was 55. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 14% and today it’s 20%. Winds at the airfield hit 16mph yesterday. Check out these temps yesterday around 4pm on Weather Underground…

*Weather Underground temps yesterday around 4pm were mostly 5-10 degrees above average.*

Precip summary… A few raindrops might have fallen in the southeast part of the county, but there was no measurable precip yesterday.

Forecast discussion…

The upper level high is wobbling around the Four Corners area. Monsoon moisture is being pushed into our area from the south. Most forecast models show precipitable water approaching an inch, which is 150% to 200% of average, by late tomorrow afternoon and staying that high through next weekend.

The other ingredient we look at for summer storms is instability. Cape is one of our best tools for that and it also stays high through next weekend.

So what does this mean? It means typical monsoon summer days here in Pagosa Country. There’s a chance for showers and thunderstorms every afternoon and evening but they’ll be hit and miss. Storms will be capable of producing quick bursts of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lighting.

Satellite and lightning loop this afternoon: Showers and thunderstorms are developing and staying over the mountains. One or two isolated cells are possible over the lower parts of the county through this evening.

*Radar this afternoon: Showers and thunderstorms have been along and on the other side of The Divide. Some cells are stationary, and some are moving slowly towards the north.*

My forecast…

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

NWS 66-hour precip shows 0.4” of rain in town and up to 1.5” in our mountains. This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss. A single cell can drop a bunch of rain and small hail over a small area in a hurry.

NBM 10-day precip through 20 Jul at 6pm – The blended model shows Pagosa Springs getting 1.59” and our mountains getting up to 2.5”. This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss and fall mostly in the afternoons and evenings. A single slow moving cell can drop a quick half inch of rain or more in a small area. Precip amounts with summer showers and thunderstorms vary considerably!

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
83	93 / 1989	44	30 / 1912

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

My next post will be sometime tomorrow.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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