Back into the moisture plume!

Popper

Although yesterday was mainly rain-free, there were a few late afternoon poppers that developed on the east side of town.

Tuesday – 5 Jul 2022 – 9am update.

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 80. The low this morning was 57. Yesterday turned out to be mainly dry, but there were a few thunderstorms that developed on the east side of town.

Screenshot 2022 07 05 075923
CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall reports ranged from a trace to 0.15 in the far SE of Archuleta County. Most of these rain totals came from showers that fell this morning.
Screenshot 2022 07 05 075609
AM showers are showing up on radar this morning (moving north). Since we are back in the moisture plume today and tomorrow, we should see more showers and thunderstorms throughout the day.

Forecast discussion…

We want to thank the weather gods for shifting the moisture plume to the east yesterday, so our Pagosa Springs 4th of July parade and afternoon events went off without rain interrupting them!

As most of you have noticed already this morning, our moisture plume is back! Despite models indicating that drier conditions would continue, it looks like we will be back in the moisture zone today and tomorrow, before high pressure builds and takes us back to the typical monsoon pattern of afternoon scattered storms through at least the weekend. Based on precipitable water of over an inch for today and tomorrow, I think rainfall totals of 1/4 -1/2 inch are possible during this time period, even though most models are predicting less.

The long-range models continue to indicate a typical monsoon pattern with a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms nearly every day. Some days will be more active than others.

For all of you visiting our beautiful area, please be careful when you go out on hikes, especially in the afternoons. Totally clear mornings can quickly turn into stormy afternoons with 20-30 degree drop in temps, heavy rain, hail, lightning and gusty winds over 40mph! Make sure you pack rain gear because being wet when temps drop to the 50’s can be more than uncomfortable…it can be dangerous.

Screenshot 2022 07 05 074520
The moisture plume (indicated in blues and whites) moved west overnight, putting us in the zone for better rain odds today and Wednesday. By Thursday, high pressure will expand westward and limit us to only scattered afternoon showers through the weekend. Hurricane Bonnie is indicated at the very bottom.
Screenshot 2022 07 05 082625
Precipitable water will rise to over an inch today and tomorrow, giving us a good chance for some decent rain. By Thursday, we will start drying out, but there will continue to be a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

My forecast…

Pagosa 5 day forecast 7 5 22
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
Screenshot 2022 07 05 075315
NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.19” of rain in town and up to 0.27” for Chama. I think these totals are low based on the new position of the monsoon moisture plume, but we shall see! This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss. A single cell can drop a bunch of rain and small hail over a small area in a hurry.

Pagosa Springs historical data for July 5th

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8395 / 19894124 / 1912

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

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