Although yesterday was mainly rain-free, there were a few late afternoon poppers that developed on the east side of town.
Tuesday – 5 Jul 2022 – 9am update.
The past…
At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 80. The low this morning was 57. Yesterday turned out to be mainly dry, but there were a few thunderstorms that developed on the east side of town.
Forecast discussion…
We want to thank the weather gods for shifting the moisture plume to the east yesterday, so our Pagosa Springs 4th of July parade and afternoon events went off without rain interrupting them!
As most of you have noticed already this morning, our moisture plume is back! Despite models indicating that drier conditions would continue, it looks like we will be back in the moisture zone today and tomorrow, before high pressure builds and takes us back to the typical monsoon pattern of afternoon scattered storms through at least the weekend. Based on precipitable water of over an inch for today and tomorrow, I think rainfall totals of 1/4 -1/2 inch are possible during this time period, even though most models are predicting less.
The long-range models continue to indicate a typical monsoon pattern with a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms nearly every day. Some days will be more active than others.
For all of you visiting our beautiful area, please be careful when you go out on hikes, especially in the afternoons. Totally clear mornings can quickly turn into stormy afternoons with 20-30 degree drop in temps, heavy rain, hail, lightning and gusty winds over 40mph! Make sure you pack rain gear because being wet when temps drop to the 50’s can be more than uncomfortable…it can be dangerous.
My forecast…
Pagosa Springs historical data for July 5th
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 83 | 95 / 1989 | 41 | 24 / 1912 |
Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.
Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.
-Mark Langford
