Rain odds are dropping, but not vanishing…

Clouds

Late afternoon storms produced some great photo ops for rainbows and mammatus clouds! Photo by Mark Langford

Wednesday – 6 Jul 2022 – 8:30am update.

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 78. The low this morning was 49. We saw showers in the morning and some strong thunderstorms in the afternoon in the eastern half of the area.

Screenshot 2022 07 06 080536
CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall reports ranged from a trace to 0.71, 6 miles SSE of town. Based on Facebook reports, Loma Linda received 1.5 inches. Ponderosa Hills and Klutter Mountain reported over an inch as well. As was the case on Monday, yesterday’s storms fell primarily over the eastern half of the county.

Forecast discussion…

The sub-tropical ridge is building over the west and will start limiting our afternoon odds for showers and thunderstorms, starting on Thursday. Precipitable water is less today than yesterday and will lower even more over the next several days as drier air moves in. Even with drier conditions, we will still have a chance for isolated afternoon storms, especially over the mountains. Most of the models bring monsoonal moisture back to our area by later next week.

For all of you visiting our beautiful area, please be careful when you go out on hikes, especially in the afternoons. Totally clear mornings can quickly turn into stormy afternoons with 20-30 degree drop in temps, heavy rain, hail, lightning and gusty winds over 40mph! Make sure you pack rain gear because being wet when temps drop to the 50’s can be more than uncomfortable…it can be dangerous.

Screenshot 2022 07 06 075931
The moisture plume (indicated in blues and whites) moved east overnight, putting us in the zone for more scattered activity today than yesterday. By Thursday, the sub-tropical ridge builds over the west and will limit us to only isolated afternoon showers through the weekend. 
Screenshot 2022 07 05 163109
Precipitable water will drop to almost half of what it was yesterday and today by Thursday. This will mean mainly dry conditions with only isolated afternoon thunderstorm and showers.

My forecast…

Pagosa 5 day forecast 7 6 22
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
Screenshot 2022 07 06 075244
NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.11” of rain for Pagosa Springs. As we saw yesterday, this is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss. A single cell can drop a bunch of rain and small hail over a small area in a hurry.

Pagosa Springs historical data for July 6th

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8498 / 19894328 / 1941

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

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