Perfect weather for a parade!

4th of July

We had a great time marching in the 4th of July parade this morning! Left-Right: Mark Langford, Connie Hays, Heather Podrasky, Arleen and Shawn Prochazka. Thanks to the Springs Resort for donating the lightning bolts we were handing out to random people today! Photo by Stephen Podrasky.

Monday – 4 Jul 2022 – 1pm update.

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 71. The low this morning was 48. Rain was recorded throughout the county and generally ranged from around a tenth to over a half inch.

Screenshot 2022 07 04 083726
CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall reports ranged from 0.07 to 0.56 in Chromo. 
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PM Poppers are already firing up in our area…there appears to be very little if any movement on these, so watch out for storms firing up overhead!

Forecast discussion…

We take all credit for the perfect weather this morning! It was fun (and good exercise!) walking the parade route and seeing so many of you who came out for the parade. Thanks to the Springs Resort for donating the lightning bolts we were handing out to random people today! As you attend afternoon events, please keep an eye out for rapidly developing thunderstorms and showers.

Slightly drier conditions will be on tap for the next several days as we are now on the edge of the monsoon moisture conveyor belt instead of being directly in the stream of moisture. With that said, there is still enough moisture available in the atmosphere and on the surface to fire off afternoon thunderstorms every day. Many will be mountain-huggers but there will also be plenty around in the valley.

The long-range models continue to indicate a typical monsoon pattern with a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms nearly every day. Some days will be more active than others.

For all of you visiting our beautiful area, please be careful when you go out on hikes, especially in the afternoons. Totally clear mornings can quickly turn into stormy afternoons with 20-30 degree drop in temps, heavy rain, hail, lightning and gusty winds over 40mph! Make sure you pack rain gear because being wet when temps drop to the 50’s can be more than uncomfortable…it can be dangerous.

Screenshot 2022 07 04 125235
Although we are currently on the edge of the moisture plume, there will still be plenty PM Poppers all week.

My forecast…

Pagosa 5 day forecast 7 4 22
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
Screenshot 2022 07 04 084615
NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.22” of rain in town and up to 0.40” in our mountains.  This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss. A single cell can drop a bunch of rain and small hail over a small area in a hurry.
Screenshot 2022 07 04 125845
The latest GFS ensemble model run for precipitation continues to show that we will be in the monsoon flow through at least the 20th of July. There will be some wetter and drier days during this time frame, but on almost any day there will be a chance for rain.

Pagosa Springs historical data for July 4th

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8393 / 19894228 / 1951

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

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