Wait, are we in the Pacific NW?…

Gloomy

A rather gloomy day at Pagosa Peak, but we will never complain about rain around here!

Sunday – 3 Jul 2022 – Noon

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 81. The low this morning was 55. Rain was recorded throughout the county and generally ranged from a quarter to a half inch. Thanks for all of your rainfall reports this morning on Facebook!

Screenshot 2022 06 18 082009
CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall reports ranged from 0.27 to 0.56”. 

Forecast discussion…

Hearing the rain during the night and now again at post time (11:30am), I’m wondering if the Pacific NW has transported its weather to Pagosa Springs? It’s a rare day in July for it to be so cloudy and rainy all day long, although there could be a few peeks of the sun later this afternoon. For planning purposes, expect intermittent showers and a possible thunderstorm to continue this afternoon and into this evening.

We look forward to seeing all of you tomorrow at the 4th of July Parade! Please keep your ripe tomatoes at home and not bring them to the parade if our weather forecast ends up being wrong for Independence Day! BTW, Shawn is the tall guy with a dark beard, just in case you decide to target him…

Since there have been no major changes since Shawn posted his Independence Day forecast yesterday, here it is again:

Independence Day – The moisture plume will be pushed a little to our east so there will be less shower and thunderstorm activity.

Expect a typical Pagosa Country summer day…  Wake up to lots of blue sky.  9-11am: Clouds will start developing, especially over the mountains.  11am-1pm: Scattered showers and thunderstorms over the mountains.  1-6pm: Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible anywhere in the county. After 6pm: Clouds will gradually clear – look for a pretty sunset!

The long-range models continue to indicate a typical monsoon pattern with a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms nearly every day. Some days will be more active than others.

For all of you visiting our beautiful area, please be careful when you go out on hikes, especially in the afternoons. Totally clear mornings can quickly turn into stormy afternoons with 20-30 degree drop in temps, heavy rain, hail, lightning and gusty winds over 40mph! Make sure you pack rain gear because being wet when temps drop to the 50’s can be more than uncomfortable…it can be dangerous.

Screenshot 2022 07 03 111026
And the moisture plume keeps on pluming! Water vapor satellite imagery from 11am. It will stick with us the rest of today and then get pushed a little to our east on Monday.

My forecast…

Pagosa 5 day forecast 7 3 22
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
Screenshot 2022 07 03 113320
NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.5” of rain in town and up to 0.80” in our mountains.  This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss. A single cell can drop a bunch of rain and small hail over a small area in a hurry.
Screenshot 2022 07 03 111553
The latest GFS model run for precipitation continues to show that we will be in the monsoon flow through at least the 19th of July. There will be some wetter and drier days during this time frame, but on almost any day there will be a chance for rain.
Screenshot 2022 07 03 112313
We will stay in the monsoon groove for at least another 2 weeks and most likely much longer!

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8394 / 19894127 / 1951

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

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