Pagosa Weather JUNE SUMMARY and July outlook

The current drought map shows a slight improvement over much of Archuleta County!

Friday – 1 Jul 2022 – 6:00pm

June 2022 Summary…

The average low for June is 36 and the average high is 78. The record high of 101 occurred on 30 June 1934. The record low of 20 occurred on 2 June 1908. Historically June is our driest month with 0.93″ precip and 0″ of snow. Wolf Creek Pass averages 1.74″ of liquid equivalent and 1.2″ of snow.

How did we do? Check out these charts…

***Temps in June were 1-3 degrees above average***

**Precip in June was well above average for Archuleta County and most of southwest Colorado.**

Quantitative Precipitation Estimates for June are impressive! This product estimates precip amounts using multiple sources. It's not perfect but is useful in data sparse regions like ours. — ***Quantitative Precipitation Estimates for June are impressive! This product estimates precip amounts using multiple sources. It’s not perfect but is useful in data sparse regions like ours.***

CoCoRaHS rainfall totals for June are impressive! They range from 2.01" to 4.61" - well above the June average of 0.93". The two reports over 4" near Echo Canyon Reservoir are interesting. That area was the rain lottery winner two days in a row in the last few days of the month with an additional inch of rain. — CoCoRaHS rainfall totals for June are impressive! They range from 2.01″ to 4.61″ – well above the June average of 0.93″. The two reports over 4″ near Echo Canyon Reservoir are interesting. That area was the rain lottery winner two days in a row in the last few days of the month with an additional inch of rain.

Drought and River Flow…

The most current drought map is on the left and the one on the right is from a month ago. All of Archuleta County is in "Severe Drought", a slight improvement from a month ago. — ***The most current drought map is on the left and the one on the right is from a month ago. All of Archuleta County is in “Severe Drought”, a slight improvement from a month ago.***

San Juan River flow in June varied from a low of 116cfs on 17 Jun to a peak of 911cfs on 27 Jun. Two things to point out: 1. The 3 spikes the second half of the month were caused by early monsoon rains. 2. Sadly flow was way below the mean for most of the month. — ***San Juan River flow in June varied from a low of 116cfs on 17 Jun to a peak of 911cfs on 27 Jun.***
***Two things to point out: 1. The 3 spikes the second half of the month were caused by early monsoon rains. 2. Sadly flow was way below the mean for most of the month.***

These are lake levels for the primary reservoirs tracked in the Upper Colorado River shed. On the left is the most current one and the one on the right is from a month ago. I highlighted the San Juan River drainage lakes at the bottom of the table. Navajo Lake has dropped a little less than 1%. Overall the lakes are up around 1.4%. Blue Mesa increased 7%. — These are lake levels for the primary reservoirs tracked in the Upper Colorado River shed. On the left is the most current one and the one on the right is from a month ago. I highlighted the San Juan River drainage lakes at the bottom of the table.
**Navajo Lake has dropped a little less than 1%. The lakes as a whole have increased around 1.4%. Blue Mesa increased 7%.**

July 2022 Outlook…

The average low for July is 44 and the average high is 83. The record high of 99 occurred on 7 July 1989. The record low of 24 occurred on 5 July 1912. Precip averages 2.01″ in July. Wolf Creek Pass averages 3.61″ of rain and 0″ of snow.

***The Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for July expects above average temps in our area.***

***The Climate Prediction Center precipitation outlook for July expects above average precip in our area.***

30-day precip forecast for the Euro ensemble on the left and the GFS ensemble on the right - The Euro expects 3.93" and the GFS expects 4.42". Both are above the average of 2.01". — ***30-day precip forecast for the Euro ensemble on the left and the GFS ensemble on the right – The Euro expects 3.93″ and the GFS expects 4.42″. Both are above the average of 2.01″.***

And what do we expect?…

Well Arleen is the expert and this is what she says…

The wonderful monsoon pattern will continue! Most days we’ll see afternoon showers and thunderstorms, but there will be dry periods from time to time. The second week will be the quietest as the subtropical ridge slips a little to our west which will temporarily cut off the moisture feed. Then things ramp right back up the third week in July with a better chance for showers each afternoon and into some evenings. July will be similar to June with more than average precipitation.

A HUGE thanks for your precip reports and pictures! Reports help verify our forecasts and make us better forecasters.

Another HUGE thanks to our donors and sponsors! You help cover the cost of this web page and our weather subscriptions, necessary to provide you accurate weather reports!

And if you’re curious about us, check out this excellent video by Matt Martin. We are humbled and honored that he used his talent and time to spotlight Pagosa Weather!

Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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2 Responses

Jeff Witten says:

July 1, 2022 at 6:50 pm

The dynamic duo are the best in the business! Arleen and Shawn never disappoint!! Thanks for the updated forecast!!

Reply
1. Shawn says:
  
  July 1, 2022 at 7:46 pm
  
  Jeff, it’s always great to hear from our biggest fan – thanks!
  
  Reply

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