We’ll continue to play the rain lottery…

A typical summer day in Pagosa Country - Wake up to clear skies and then clouds brew over the mountains each afternoon. Pics taken 6/29/2022

A typical summer day in Pagosa Country – Wake up to clear skies and then clouds brew over the mountains each afternoon. Pics taken 6/29/2022

Thursday – 30 Jun 2022 – 8:40am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 80. The low this morning was 54. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 21%. Winds at the airfield hit 10mph yesterday. We hit 29mph in O’Neal Park, just north of Turkey Springs.

** The Grand Junction radar is back on-line.  In its absence, we learned that the Alamosa radar picks up summer showers and thunderstorms quite well over much of Archuleta County. Now we’re even more confident that the addition of Durango’s radar next year will plug the remaining data gaps. **

Precip summary… Showers stayed over the mountains in the northern part of Pagosa Country.

*** Archuleta County and the San Juan National Forest have implemented STAGE 1 FIRE RESTRICTIONS. ***

Forecast discussion…

The upper level ridge axis moved to our west yesterday and cut off our moisture.  This morning the ridge axis has slid a little east, nearly over us, and more moisture has moved back into the area. Afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity will increase a bit, but we’ll still be playing the rain lottery.

The long range models continue to indicate a typical monsoon pattern with a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms nearly every day. Some days will be more active than others.

And the 4th of July? It looks like a typical monsoon season day.  Wake up to lots of blue sky.  Clouds start developing by late morning, especially over the mountains.  During the afternoon and early evening, scattered showers and thunderstorms move over a few parts of the county.  Clouds clear in the evening, and we’re treated to a pretty sunset!

Water vapor satellite loop this morning: The moisture plume slid to our west yesterday. This morning it has moved a little east, back towards us. Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon will move from the southwest towards the northeast.
Water vapor satellite loop this morning: The moisture plume slid to our west yesterday.  This morning it has moved a little east, back towards us. We’ll see a few more scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
Radar this morning: It’s good to see scattered showers to our west and near the Four Corners. We’ll see a little more shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon. Cells will be moving towards the northeast so keep an eye out for big dark clouds to your southwest. It’s good to see the Grand Junction radar back on-line!
Radar this morning:  It’s good to see scattered showers to our west and near the Four Corners. We’ll see a little more shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon.  Cells will be moving towards the northeast so keep an eye out for big dark clouds to your southwest.  It’s good to see the Grand Junction radar back on-line!

My forecast…

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.19” of rain in town and up to 1.00” in our mountains. Note that the heaviest precip is expected on the other side of The Divide. This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss. A single cell can drop a bunch of rain and small hail over a small area in a hurry.
NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.19” of rain in town and up to 1.00” in our mountains. Note that the heaviest precip is expected on the other side of The Divide.  This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss. A single cell can drop a bunch of rain and small hail over a small area in a hurry.
Euro ensemble precip through 11 Jul at 6am – The Euro model shows Pagosa Springs getting 1.42” for the 10-day period. The GFS ensemble has 1.45” and the NBM indicates 0.53”. So the Euro and GFS are on the same page while the NBM expects much less. That’s a big inconsistency that I must keep an eye on. Right now I agree with the Euro and GFS, but… This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss. A single slow moving cell can drop a quick half inch of rain or more in a small area. Precip amounts with summer showers and thunderstorms vary considerably!
Euro ensemble precip through 11 Jul at 6am – The Euro model shows Pagosa Springs getting 1.42” for the 10-day period. The GFS ensemble has 1.45” and the NBM indicates 0.53”. So the Euro and GFS are on the same page while the NBM expects much less. That’s a big inconsistency that I must keep an eye on. Right now I agree with the Euro and GFS, but…

This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss. A single slow moving cell can drop a quick half inch of rain or more in a small area.  Precip amounts with summer showers and thunderstorms vary considerably!

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
82101 / 19344128 / 1942

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

If there are no weather surprises, my next post will be Saturday morning.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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