Scattered afternoon showers & thunderstorms…

Scattered afternoon showers & thunderstorms…

A cumulonimbus over Wolf Creek Pass at sunset… Pic taken by Arleen on 6/27/2022

Tuesday – 28 Jun 2022 – 4:15pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 70. The low this morning was 47. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 48%. Winds at the airfield hit 12mph yesterday.

Yesterday was a typical summer day in Pagosa Country.  We woke up to lots of sun and bright blue skies.  By late morning clouds were growing over the mountains.  During the afternoon and early evening a few showers and thunderstorms moved across parts of the county. And then we were treated to a pretty sunset.

Side note: The Grand Junction radar is expected to be down until 1 Jul for scheduled maintenance. We will rely heavily on satellite during this time.

Good news here: U.S. supercomputers for weather and climate forecasts get major bump

“Enhanced computing and storage capacity will allow NOAA to deploy higher-resolution models to better capture small-scale features like severe thunderstorms, more realistic model physics to better capture the formation of clouds and precipitation, and a larger number of individual model simulations to better quantify model certainty. The end result is even better forecasts and warnings to support public safety and the national economy.”

Precip summary… Precip was definitely hit and miss yesterday.  A few places experienced bursts of very heavy rain and up to marble-size hail.  Thanks a bunch for your reports and pictures.  We forwarded the hail reports to Grand Junction NWS and they added them to their data base.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall totals range from a trace to 0.99”. It rained heavily in a few spots for brief periods.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall totals range from a trace to 0.99”. It rained heavily in a few spots for brief periods.

*** Archuleta County and the San Juan National Forest have implemented STAGE 1 FIRE RESTRICTIONS. ***

Forecast discussion…

Though the main part of the monsoon moisture plume has pushed to our south, there is enough residual moisture and instability to kick up scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Tomorrow will be the least active day of the week.  There will be less moisture and the atmosphere will be a bit more stable.  However, we’ve still got a shot at spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially over the mountains.

The long range models continue to indicate a typical monsoon pattern with a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms nearly every day. Some days will be more active than others.

And the 4th of July? It looks like a typical monsoon season day.  Wake up to lots of blue sky.  Clouds start developing by late morning, especially over the mountains.  During the afternoon and early evening, a few scattered showers and thunderstorms move over a few parts of the county.  Clouds clear in the evening, and we’re treated to a pretty sunset!

Satellite and lightning at 3:40pm this afternoon: It is not as active as yesterday due a little less moisture.  But there are a couple of showers and thunderstorms over parts of Archuleta County.
Satellite and lightning at 3:40pm this afternoon: It is not as active as yesterday due to a little less moisture.  But there are a couple of showers and thunderstorms over parts of Archuleta County.
Radar this afternoon at 3:52pm: Showers and thunderstorms have popped up quickly in the last hour and are moving slowly towards the south.  A few spots will experience a brief period of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
Radar this afternoon at 3:52pm: Showers and thunderstorms have popped up quickly in the last hour and are moving slowly towards the south.  A few spots will experience a brief period of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

My forecast…

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

NWS 66-hour precip shows 0.08” of rain in town and up to 0.30” in our mountains. This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss. Just like yesterday, a single cell can drop a bunch of rain over a small area in a hurry.
NWS 66-hour precip shows 0.08” of rain in town and up to 0.30” in our mountains. This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss. Just like yesterday, a single cell can drop a bunch of rain over a small area in a hurry.
NBM forecast precip through 8 Jul at noon – This blend of multiple models indicates Pagosa Springs getting 1.05” for the 10-day period. The Euro ensemble indicates 1.57” and the GFS ensemble shows 0.90”.  The models are trending down for our precip amounts. This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss.
NBM forecast precip through 8 Jul at noon – This blend of multiple models indicates Pagosa Springs getting 1.05” for the 10-day period. The Euro ensemble indicates 0.90” and the GFS ensemble shows 1.57”.  The models are trending down for our precip amounts. This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8294 / 19904022 / 1948

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

If there are no weather surprises, my next post will be on Thursday morning.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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