Typical monsoon pattern for a while…

It’s unusual for us to need our overflow tubes for CoCoRaHS reports!... Pic taken by Mark on 6/27/2022

It’s unusual for us to need our overflow tubes for CoCoRaHS reports!… Pic taken by Mark on 6/27/2022

Monday – 27 Jun 2022 – 4:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 67 just after 2pm. By evening temps across the area were mostly in the upper 40s to low 50s… brrrr. The low this morning was 50. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 51% before the rain started. Winds at the airfield hit 17mph yesterday.

Side note: The Grand Junction radar is expected to be down until 1 Jul for scheduled maintenance. We will rely heavily on satellite during this time.

Precip summary… The county got a good soaking!

CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall totals range from 0.99” to 1.50”. The rain lottery winners had 1.75” near Forest Lake and Cat Creek!
CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall totals range from 0.99” to 1.50”. The rain lottery winners had 1.75” near Forest Lake and Cat Creek!

*** Archuleta County and the San Juan National Forest have implemented STAGE 1 FIRE RESTRICTIONS. ***

Forecast discussion…

The heart of the monsoon plume has been pushed to our south and east. However, there is plenty of residual moisture and instability to kick up scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday will be the least active day of the week.  There will be less moisture and the atmosphere will be a bit more stable.  However, we’ve still got a shot at spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially over the mountains.

The long range models continue to indicate a typical monsoon pattern with a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms nearly every day. Some days will be more active than others. 

Infrared satellite 2-hour loop this afternoon: The main part of the moisture plume has been pushed to our east and south.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms have popped up across CO and UT and are moving slowly towards the south.
Infrared satellite 2-hour loop this afternoon: The main part of the moisture plume has been pushed to our east and south.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms have popped up across CO and UT and are moving slowly towards the south.
Radar this afternoon at 4:04pm: Good example of “scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms”! These will only impact small areas for brief periods.  “If you don’t like the weather, just wait a few minutes!”  Cells are moving slowly towards the south or south-southeast. Shower activity will decrease during the evening.
Radar this afternoon at 4:04pm: Good example of “scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms”! These will only impact small areas for brief periods.  “If you don’t like the weather, just wait a few minutes!”  Cells are moving slowly towards the south or south-southeast. Shower activity will decrease during the evening.

My forecast…

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.22” of rain in town and up to 0.75” in our mountains. This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss.
NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.22” of rain in town and up to 0.75” in our mountains. This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss.
NBM forecast precip through 7 Jul at noon – This blend of multiple models indicates Pagosa Springs getting 1.56” for the 10-day period. The Euro ensemble indicates 1.34” and the GFS ensemble shows 1.74”.  This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss.
NBM forecast precip through 7 Jul at noon – This blend of multiple models indicates Pagosa Springs getting 1.56” for the 10-day period. The Euro ensemble indicates 1.34” and the GFS ensemble shows 1.74”.  This is all convective/showery precip that will be hit and miss.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8295 / 19903926 / 1965

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

My next post will probably be tomorrow afternoon.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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