Wet today and tomorrow…

Another beautiful sunrise in Pagosa Country… Pic taken 6/26/2022

Sunday – 26 Jun 2022 – 9:15am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 77 at 1:15pm and then showers moved through and the temp dropped 17 degrees to 60. The low this morning was 52. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 21% before showers moved through. Winds at the airfield hit 21mph yesterday.

Side note: The Grand Junction radar is expected to be down until 1 Jul for scheduled maintenance. We will rely heavily on satellite during this time.

Precip summary… A couple of parts of Pagosa Country got a good soaking yesterday but others stayed dry.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall totals range from zero to 0.38”. A personal weather sensor between Forest Lake and Vista Lake was the rain lottery winner with a half inch! This is another good example of how spotty these showers can be.

*** Archuleta County and the San Juan National Forest have implemented STAGE 1 FIRE RESTRICTIONS. ***

Forecast discussion…

This round of subtropical moisture will stick with us through Monday afternoon. Rainshowers and thunderstorms will peak today as the main part of the moisture plume is over us.

The long range looks just like a typical monsoon pattern with a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms nearly every day.

For those of you looking at the forecast and thinking “yuck it’s going to rain every day”… Two things: 1. It won’t rain everywhere every day. 2. When it rains, it usually rains heavily for 20-30 mins and then the sun usually comes out shortly after. “If you don’t like the weather, just wait a few minutes!”

*Satellite this morning: The heart of the monsoonal plume is over us. It will get more active this afternoon as the sun provides fuel with some warming.*

Radar this morning: Using radar right now is tricky because Grand Junction is down, and our Four Corners donut hole make it challenging. North-central NM continues to get a good soaking. Individual cells will move towards the northeast at 15-20mph so keep an eye out to your southwest for big dark clouds.

My forecast…

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.90” of rain in town and up to 2” in our mountains. Most of this precip will fall today and into Monday afternoon. Precip will come in waves with occasional heavy showers and thunderstorms. The southeast part of Archuleta County and Chama will be favored.

NBM forecast precip through 7 Jul at 6am – This blend of multiple models indicates Pagosa Springs getting 1.91” for the 10-day period. The Euro ensemble indicates 2.00” and the GFS ensemble shows 2.31”. The last couple of model runs indicate a decreasing trend for precip.

NBM 6-hour precip loop from Tuesday at 6am to 7 Jul at 6am – This is a typical monsoon pattern with a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms every afternoon. Somedays are more active than others. — NBM 6-hour precip loop from Tuesday at 6am to 7 Jul at 6am – This is a typical monsoon pattern with a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms every afternoon. Some days are more active than others.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
82	94 / 1990	38	22 / 1951

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

My next post will probably be tomorrow afternoon.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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