Occasional showers & thunderstorms through Monday afternoon…

Trail Ambassador Tommy was keeping a close eye on the Piedra River trailhead. It was great meeting a few Pagosa Weather followers today!… Pic taken 6/25/2022

Saturday – 25 Jun 2022 – 4:00pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high today was 77. The low this morning was 49. Humidity this afternoon bottomed out at 21%. Winds at the airfield have hit 21mph today.

Side note: The Grand Junction radar is expected to be down until 1 Jul for scheduled maintenance. We will rely heavily on satellite during this time.

Precip summary… It was dry for most of the county yesterday.

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall totals range from zero to 0.01”. I know that there was at least one good cell that hit from Williams Creek Reservoir to the Sportsman’s Campground.*

*** Archuleta County and the San Juan National Forest have implemented STAGE 1 FIRE RESTRICTIONS. ***

Forecast discussion…

The moisture plume has moved back into our area. Spotty showers have hit a few parts of the county as I work on this post. This round of subtropical moisture will stick with us through Monday afternoon. Rainshowers and thunderstorms will peak on Sunday as the main part of the moisture plume moves over us.

The long range looks just like a typical monsoon pattern with a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms nearly every day.

For those of you looking at the forecast and thinking “yuck it’s going to rain every day”… Two things: 1. It won’t rain everywhere every day. 2. When it rains, it usually rains heavily for 20-30 mins and then the sun usually comes out shortly after. “If you don’t like the weather, just wait a few minutes!”

*Satellite and lightning this afternoon: This 1 hour loop shows a decent cell pop up and move across central Archuleta County. Most of the action is in NM.*

Radar this afternoon at 3pm: ABQ radar indicated a decent cell that moved northeast just north of highway 160. Weather sensors in that area picked up a quick 0.40” of rain. So far most of the eastern part of the county is getting some rain while the western part is mostly dry.

My forecast…

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

NWS 66-hour precip shows 1” of rain in town and up to 2” in our mountains. Most of this precip will fall Sunday and into Monday afternoon. Precip will come in waves with occasional heavy showers and thunderstorms.

NBM forecast precip through 6 Jul at 6am – This blend of multiple models indicates Pagosa Springs getting 2.54” for the 10-day period. The Euro ensemble indicates 2.49” and the GFS ensemble shows 2.66”. That’s pretty decent consistency for 10-day forecasts. It’s obvious where the monsoon moisture plume is expected.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
82	95 / 1990	38	22 / 1951

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

My next post will probably be tomorrow afternoon.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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